China Existential Chronicles
The Existential Threat the Pandemic Reveals About China's
Strategic Plan for Achieving World-Wide Hegemony
Chinese Communist Party Control Over Media – A Comprehensive Assessment airpowerasia.com by Anil Chopra July 30, 2020 - Very tightly government controlled China suffers from a wide-range of societal complexities. Three that have impact on foreign relations and internal dynamics are Communist Party of China's (CCP) full control over military, media and its fragile social balance. China thus has serious societal issues to contend with. This article looks at Censorship. The CPC Propaganda Department, issues instructions for the Chinese media to downplay social tensions on issues such as land prices, political reform and major disasters or incidents, and to ensure reporting does not show the Communist party negatively. The Party warned that the media must "ensure that the party and government do not become the targets or focus of criticism", and any mention of political reforms must reflect the government in a favourable light. The Chinese government generally considers LGBT content to be obscene, and regularly censors such content in mass media. The Chinese software companies are competing in order to offer better censor tools and systems, as demand for their services is rising. This is because the Chinese state holds the companies that run the social media sites responsible for doing some of the censoring. This means, ironically enough, that market mechanisms are supporting censorship in China. Beijing is gaining control over crucial parts of some countries' information infrastructure using Chinese technology firms with close ties to the CCP. They are also trying to acquire content-dissemination platforms. They will then be able to manipulate political content into pro-Beijing narratives. Effort is to present China as a model country to emulate. Chinese are showing readiness to meddle in the internal political debates and electoral contests of other countries. International corporations such as Google, Facebook, Microsoft, MySpace, Shutterstock, and Yahoo! voluntarily censor their content for Chinese markets in order to be allowed to do business in the country. The economically powerful authoritarian state is flexing its propaganda muscle to increase influence. This could have serious implications for weak democracies - [as the United States is fast becoming under a Biden Presidency].
In the March, 2020 timeline of my chronicle about Progressive Socialist Politics posing an existential threat to our Republic - the sudden onset of the Chinese Coronavirus Pandemic triggered a paradigm shift in scale and scope in the urgency of our Republic's foreign geopolitical priorities - specifically in the revelations of the Sino/Russian conspiracy to propagandized a coronavirus narrative - whereby the virus was deliberately planted in Wuhan by visiting U.S. Military personnel and that the People's Republic of China - despite their own suffering - are heroically rushing medical equipment and aid around the world to combat the threat brought on by a diabolical America.
Chain Reaction American Legion by Alan W. Dowd Nov. 20, 2020 - The COVID-19 pandemic has exposed a glaring threat to U.S. public health and national security: dependence on the People's Republic of China (PRC) for critical equipment, technologies, products and medicines. Awaiting presidential elect Biden's foreign policy response to this threat.
The China Reckoning American Legion by Alan W. Dowd Apr. 21, 2020 - As the public-health crisis spawned by COVID-19 begins to ease and the world begins to grapple with the economic wreckage wrought by efforts to contain the disease, there are intensifying calls for China to be held to account for its appalling response to the initial outbreak. Like a gathering storm, a reckoning is coming for Beijing.
FIXING BLAME: We can't blame Beijing for COVID-19, but we can blame Beijing for its handling of COVID-19. What was a manageable public-health problem mushroomed into a global pandemic - erasing tens of thousands of lives and trillions of dollars in treasure - because Xi Jinping regime's failed to act and then tried to cover up its failures. The record reads like an indictment. It took six weeks for Chinese officials to quarantine Wuhan, the epicenter of the outbreak. During that time, thousands of people left Wuhan for destinations around the world, Chinese authorities jailed and muzzled a physician for warning his colleagues about the viru, Beijing refused the CDC's offer to help, Chinese officials told the World Health Organization (WHO) they "found no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission, and Xi's henchmen ordered scientists not to share findings about coronavirus-genome sequencing.
The University of Southampton concludes that had Beijing taken appropriate action three weeks earlier, 95 percent of cases would have been prevented across China; a week earlier would have prevented 66 percent of cases. That, in turn, would have prevented COVID-19 from becoming a global pandemic - but that would have required China behaving like a responsible power. Instead, Beijing lied about the outbreak's origin date, transmission rate and death toll. The COVID-19 crisis proves what many of us have argued for decades: China's internal political system is an international problem. Like other communist governments, the PRC is an ends-justify-the-means regime that has contempt for the individual at home and disdain for norms of behavior abroad. In the aftermath of COVID-19, much of the world is finally waking up to this reality.
Leaked Western intel dossier reveals how China deceived the world about coronavirus Fox News (video & article) May 5, 2020 by Nick Givas, Samuel Chamberlain - A research dossier compiled by the so-called "Five Eyes" intelligence alliance states that China intentionally hid or destroyed evidence of the coronavirus outbreak, leading to the loss of tens of thousands of lives around the world. The 15-page document from the intelligence agencies of the U.S., Canada, the U.K., Australia and New Zealand, was obtained by Australia's [Daily] Telegraph newspaper and states that China's secrecy amounted to an "assault on international transparency."
The dossier goes on to state that throughout February, "Beijing [pressed] the US [sic], Italy, India, Australia, Southeast Asian neighbors [sic] and others not to protect themselves via travel restrictions, even as [China] impose[d] severe restrictions at home." At the same time, the file states: "Millions of people [left] Wuhan after the outbreak and before Beijing lock[ed] down the city on January 23." The dossier continues with a litany of Chinese defensiveness, stating: "As EU [European Union] diplomats prepare a report on the pandemic, [China] successfully presses Brussels to strike language on [China] disinformation." Similarly, "As Australia calls for an independent inquiry into the pandemic, [China] threatens to cut off trade with Australia. [China] has likewise responded furiously to US [sic] calls for transparency." The file is similarly unsparing about the World Health Organization (WHO), stating that it toed the Chinese line about human-to-human transmission despite the fact that "officials in Taiwan raised concerns as early as December 31, as did experts in Hong Kong on January 4." As of Friday night, the WHO's official Twitter account still featured a tweet from Jan. 14 that stated: "Preliminary investigations conducted by the Chinese authorities have found no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission of the novel #coronavirus (2019-nCoV) identified in #Wuhan, #China."
Maria Bartiromo: Communist China's COVID-19 response 'brought us to a critical moment' May 10, 2020 - Fox News and Fox Business host Maria Bartiromo examined the origins of the world's deadliest pandemic in more than a century, the response of the Chinese communist dictatorship to the crisis, and the implications of all of this for the future in the new special. Now, in a compilation of interviews with President Donald Trump, Vice President Mike Pence, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and the country's most influential political, military and business leaders, Bartiromo has detailed suspicions that the totalitarian regime may have used the coronavirus crisis to further its own ends. "The warning bell has rung," said Bartiromo, "The American dream is still alive today. But if we do not take the threat seriously our future will shift from America versus China to America under China."
In March, the University of Southampton in the United Kingdom released a troubling study on the COVID-19 outbreak. It was posted on the medrxiv repository and had not yet been peer-reviewed. In a statement, the researchers claimed that early intervention by the Chinese government could have reduced the spread of COVID-19 by up to 95 percent. Instead, according to U.S. Senator Tom Cotton R-Ark., the CCP regime decided that it would be better for them if the world shared in their misery. "I believe the Chinese communist leaders... made the conscious decision not to explain to the world that it was transmissible between humans, not to shut down travel... but to allow this virus to escape their borders." "If they were going to suffer an economic contraction, they were not going to allow the world to continue to prosper," he claimed. "In other words, they didn't want to see the Chinese economy contract 20 percent, with the rest of the world contracting 2 percent?" asked Bartiromo. "That's exactly right," replied Cotton. "When they shut down Hubei province, they shut down flights out of that province throughout China, they did not shut down international flights," said Keane in April. "Those flights were going to Italy, three a week from Wuhan alone, all over Europe." Rep. Mike McCaul, the top Republican on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, called the World Health Organization and the Chinese Communists "co-conspirators" in allegedly hiding information early on in the outbreak and calling it "the worst cover-up in human history." "Communist China has been economically and militarily positioning itself for global domination and the progress they have made will shock you."
Tucker Carlson FULL SHOW Tucker Carlson Fox News Dec 07, 2020 - Shocking revelations on tape of Chinese professor bragging about how the PRC has powerful American elites in high-places - ready to exploit a Biden administration to advance policies in China's interest -- Candace Owens commentary on Democratic leaders wanting vaccine allocated by race nand how do politicians like Ilhan Omar become a millionair in her first year as a junior congresswomen --. Coronavirus lockdowns and mandates fraught with inconsistencies and hypocracy -- Elementary school principal, a twenty-year veteran, fired over conservative memes that ask "why is requiring voter ID racist?" -- Georgia GOP Chair & Trump file lawsuit of systemic failure in the state's general election.
In 15 Years, China Will Be Able to Threaten Any Country Within Days, Expert Says Epoch Times by Ella Kietlinska and Joshua Philipp Dec. 7, 2020 - The CCP's goal is to become the global hegemon "and all I can say watching them for the last 20 years is that they are making steady progress," Rick Fisher, a senior fellow at the International Assessment and Strategy Center, told The Epoch Times' "Crossroads" program. The CCP has created within the U.S. business sector "a phalanx of allies since the beginning of normalization of relations in the 1970s," Fisher said, and they helped the CCP to advance its interests within the American Congress and the American government.
China's Communist newspaper threatens American lives As our nation mobilizes to face the Coronavirus pandemic, China's Communist Party's Xinhua News just posted a piece March 3, 2020 titled "Be bold: the world owes China a thank you", which the newspaper says if China imposes restrictions on pharmaceutical exports, US will be "plunged into the mighty sea of coronavirus".
"In other words, they threatened to kill us," Carlson commented. "And, we're all sort of standing back like, 'Oh, you know it's not a big deal.'"
China's Government Is Like Something Out of '1984' February 20, 2020 by Victor Davis Hanson - The Chinese communist government increasingly poses an existential threat not just to its own 1.4 billion citizens but to the world at large. China is currently in a dangerously chaotic state. And why not, when a premodern authoritarian society leaps wildly into the brave new world of high-tech science in a single generation?
The Chinese technological revolution is overseen by an Orwellian dictatorship. Predictably, the Chinese Communist Party has not developed the social, political or cultural infrastructure to ensure that its sophisticated industrial and biological research does not go rogue and become destructive to itself and to the billions of people who are on the importing end of Chinese products and protocols.
Central party officials run the government, military, media and universities collectively in a manner reminiscent of the science-fiction Borg organism of "Star Trek," which was a horde of robot-like entities all under the control of a central mind.
Thirty years ago, American pundits began gushing over China's sudden leap from horse-drawn power to solar, wind and nuclear energy. The Chinese communist government wowed Westerners. It created from nothing high-speed rail, solar farms, shiny new airports and gleaming new high-density apartment buildings. Western-trained Chinese scientists soon were conducting sophisticated medical and scientific research. And they often did so rapidly, without the prying regulators, nosy elected officials and bothersome citizen lawsuits that often burden American and European scientists. To make China instantly rich and modern, the communist hierarchy -- the same government that once caused the deaths of some 60 million innocents under Mao Zedong -- ignored property rights. It crushed individual freedom. It embraced secrecy and bulldozed over any who stood in its way. In much the same manner that silly American pundits once praised Benito Mussolini's fascist efforts to modernize Depression-era Italy, many naifs in the West praised China only because they wished that their own countries could recalibrate so quickly and efficiently -- especially in service to green agendas.
But the world is learning that China does not just move mountains for new dams or bulldoze ancient neighborhoods that stand in the path of high-speed rail. It also hid the outbreak and the mysterious origins of the deadly coronavirus from its own people and the rest of the planet as well -- a more dangerous replay of its earlier effort to mask the spread of the SARS virus. The result was that thousands of unknowing carriers spread the viral plague while the government covered up its epidemic proportions. China, of course, does not wish to have either its products or citizens quarantined from other countries. But the Chinese government will not allow foreign scientists to enter its country to collaborate on containing the coronavirus and developing a vaccine. It is hard to believe that in 2020, the world's largest and second-wealthiest county, which boasts of high-tech consumer products and gleaming cities, has imprisoned in "re-education camps" more than 1 million Uighur Muslims in the manner that Hitler, Stalin and Mao once relocated "undesirable" populations. China seems confident that it will soon rule the world, given its huge population, massive trade surpluses, vast cash reserves and industries that produce so many of the world's electronic devices, pharmaceuticals and consumer goods. For a year, the Chinese government has battled massive street demonstrations for democracy in Hong Kong. Beijing cynically assumes that Western nations don't care. They are expected to drop their characteristic human rights advocacy because of how profitable their investments inside China have proven.
Beijing was right. Few Western companies complain that Chinese society is surveilled, regulated and controlled in a nightmarish fashion that George Orwell once predicted in his dystopian novel "1984." All of these recent scandals should remind the world that China got rich by warping trade and stealing technology in much the same way that it deals with epidemics and dissidents. That is, by simply ignoring legitimate criticism and crushing anyone in its way. If the Chinese communist Borg is willing to put millions of its own citizens at risk of infection and death, why would it care about foreigners' complaints that China is getting rich and powerful by breaking international trade rules?
The truth about President Trump's decision to call China to account over its systematic abuse of international trade norms is not that Trump's policy is reckless or ill-considered. It's that at this late date, the reckoning might prove too little, too late.
U.S. sanctions 14 Chinese officials over HK; Beijing says it will retaliate WASHINGTON/BEIJING (Reuters) by Humeyra Pamuk, Gabriel Crossley Dec. 8, 2020 - The United States imposed financial sanctions and a travel ban on 14 Chinese officials over their alleged role in Beijing's disqualification last month of elected opposition legislators in Hong Kong, prompting China to say it will retaliate. Chinese foreign ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying told a news briefing on Tuesday that Beijing would take "firm counter-measures against the malicious actions by the U.S. to safeguard our sovereignty, security and developmental rights."
She also urged the United States to withdraw the decision. The U.S. move announced on Monday, which was first reported by Reuters, targeted the vice chairpersons of the National People's Congress Standing Committee (NPCSC), the top decision-making body of the Chinese legislature. The action was widely seen as part of an effort by outgoing President Donald Trump to cement his tough-on-China legacy and also box president-elect Joe Biden, before he takes office on Jan. 20, into hardline positions on Beijing at a time /p>
China Poses an Existential Threat to the Rights of People Worldwide Human Rights Watch by Francis Martel Jan 16 2020 - An unchallenged China will herald in "a dystopian future in which no one is beyond the reach of Chinese censors, and an international human rights system so weakened that it no longer serves as a check on government repression," Human Rights Watch warned in its annual report on the country. The 2020 China report from the non-governmental organization (NGO) accused both states friendly to China and corporations that do business with it of "enabling" China's increased use of violence and systematic state repression to silence political dissidents, religious groups, and ethnic minorities.
Uyghurs for Sale 'Re-education', forced labor and surveillance beyond Xinjiang Australian Strategic Policy Institute - What's the problem? Since 2017, more than a million Uyghurs and members of other Turkic Muslim minorities have disappeared into a vast network of 're-education camps' in the far west region of Xinjiang, in what some experts call a systematic, government-led program of cultural genocide. Inside the camps, detainees are subjected to political indoctrination, forced to renounce their religion and culture and, in some instances, reportedly subjected to torture. In the name of combating 'religious extremism,14 Chinese authorities have been actively remoulding the Muslim population in the image of China's Han ethnic majority. The 're-education' campaign appears to be entering a new phase, as government officials now claim that all 'trainees' have 'graduated'. There is mounting evidence that many Uyghurs are now being forced to work in factories within Xinjiang. This report reveals that Chinese factories outside Xinjiang are also sourcing Uyghur workers under a revived, exploitative government-led labour transfer scheme. Some factories appear to be using Uyghur workers sent directly from 're-education camps'. Under conditions that strongly suggest forced labour, Uyghurs are working in factories that are in the supply chains of at least 83 well-known global brands in the technology, clothing and automotive sectors, including Apple, BMW, Gap, Huawei, Nike, Samsung, Sony and Volkswagen. Article sourced from Ned Ryun Twitter
China's Algorithms of Oppression weaponizing artificial intelligence May 21, 2019 - Since April 2017, the Chinese government has interned, imprisoned, or forcibly disappeared at least 435 intellectuals as part of its intensified assault on Uyghurs and erasure of their culture. The New York Times confirmed that The Chinese government is using AI-powered facial recognition systems to monitor and target members of the Uighurs, a persecuted Muslim minority in China. Human Rights Watch, in its recently released report titled "China's Algorithms of Oppression," provide additional evidence of Beijing's use of new technologies to curtail the rights and liberties of the Uighurs.
In states with unaccountable institutions and frequent human rights abuses, AI systems will most likely cause greater damage. China is a prominent example. Its leadership has enthusiastically embraced AI technologies, and has set up the world's most sophisticated surveillance state in Xinjiang province, tracking citizens' daily movements and smartphone use, notes Steven Feldstein, a nonresident fellow in Carnegie's Democracy, Conflict, and Governance Program. "Its exploitation of these technologies presents a chilling model for fellow autocrats and poses a direct threat to open democratic societies. Chinese companies are actively exporting the same underlying technologies across the world. With Russia and China making significant progress in developing AI technologies, it seems that the "race for AI supremacy and AI hegemony" is already on.
Beijing has become masterful at crafting long-term strategic vision, devoting the necessary resources and ensuring successful implementation. Such an approach has naturally spilled over into foreign policy, with Beijing simultaneously pursuing the Belt and Road Initiative, a military build-up and the pursuit of supremacy in artificial intelligence. See more Uyghur oppression
If the Left refuses to help Trump's drive to economic recovery and national defense-
their partisan derangement will take America on the road to disaster.
The Decline and Fall of the United States of America A chronicle of the last days of the American Republic April 30, 2020 - Road to Perdition: No matter where you look, our society feels like it is rapidly spinning out of control: The response to the coronavirus pandemic might well be worse than the virus itself, as our economic shutdown has now displaced thirty million American workers. Supply chains have been disrupted, and some are predicting massive food shortages across the entire world. The left is using the virus as an excuse to push their entire wish list from open borders to green energy to 1984-style surveillance. China is ascendant in the world, using their military to bully their neighbors and their propaganda machine to cow Americans who question our relationship with them. Migrants are still coming to civilized nations, crossing both the Mediterranean and Rio Grande at will. The whole world is hurtling down the road like a runaway truck, with no way to hit the brakes. How can we disengage before we utterly crash? Where is the off-ramp from this highway to hell?
The response to the coronavirus pandemic has shattered that strong economy, yet the cracks were there for anyone to see. Unfunded state liabilities continued to increase, without hope of being fulfilled. Federal deficits continued to be more than a trillion dollars a year, and the growth of our national debt showed no signs of slowing. Ideally, we would let airlines, banks, and other corporations go bankrupt in order to clear the deck of over-extended and inefficient corporations. Bankruptcy is not dirty word; rather it is a vital part of a free market. Over-extended businesses and diseconomies of scale need to be partitioned and sold off to satisfy their creditors, not given a cheque from the taxpayer that allows them to continue operating inefficiently. Corporations such as Google and Apple happily work with China to censor the internet and crack down on dissidents, the NBA and Hollywood prostrate themselves before their new Chinese benefactors, and American media outlets reprint Chinese propaganda because it serves their short-term anti-Trump narratives.
The Atlantic recently published a piece extolling the virtues of authoritarianism and censorship: "In the great debate of the past two decades about freedom versus control of the network, China was largely right and the United States was largely wrong. Significant monitoring and speech control are inevitable components of a mature and flourishing internet, and governments must play a large role in these practices to ensure that the internet is compatible with a society's norms and values." Remember when the left was in favor of free speech, free expression, and an open internet? Those days are long gone. Today's left looks at the authoritarianism of Communist China as an example, not a warning. Today, powerful cultural forces are working to change our so-called norms to something much more sinister: Socialism and dependence upon government; collectivism rather than liberty; and the destruction of the traditional family. The people in charge of enforcing these norms are social justice warriors at Twitter, Facebook, and Google who boast of their mental illness and declare that transgenderism, homosexuality, atheism, and even pedophilia are all right and proper while traditional American values are on par with Naziism.
Nuclear weapons have been a deterrent to war between great powers since the end of World War II, but the pressure cannot keep building forever. The current diplomatic situation looks a lot like it did before World War I, with an ascendant China in place of the Kaiser's encircled Germany. Over the last half century, America has become weaker and more dependent upon nations such as China for supplies, while China itself has become stronger. They are propagandizing our children in our own schools using fronts like the Confucius Institute. While the coronavirus pandemic is generating support for decoupling from China, it might be too little, too late. What happens tomorrow if China decides to finally seize Taiwan? What happens if they decide to occupy disputed islands in their region? Does America stand up and say stop? Or do we back down rather than risk World War III? China can afford to play chicken here, much more than we can. China's collectivist culture would not hesitate to sacrifice a hundred million men to win a war, while our culture would not have the stomach for such death and destruction. We missed the off-ramp to stopping China thirty years ago, before they reached this point of cultural, economic, and military dominance. We should never have normalized trade relations with a country that is willing to kill millions of their own people on the road to progress. We should never have allowed them to use our universities to train their engineers and researchers. We should never have allowed them to wantonly steal our intellectual property, proprietary designs, and even nuclear secrets, as well as to spy on our elected officials. Now it could be too late. There might be no way to stop China from achieving the dominance they desire. Our best hope is to disengage as much as possible and return manufacturing to within our borders.
AG William Barr condemns U.S. tech for kowtowing to China July 16, 2020 - Barr lays out the existential threat the CCP presents with strategic preditory practices in manufacture goods and technology and cultivating and coercing global assets and American political, universities, tech, media and entertainment entities to be complicit in eroding America's position as a dominent economic globalist partner with a totalitarian communist hegemon.
China 'cornered' the personal protective equipment market and 'is profiteering' during coronavirus outbreak Fox News April 19, 2020 - Peter Navarro: "First of all, the virus was spawned in China. Second of all, they hid the virus behind the shield of the World Health Organization. The third thing they did was basically hoard personal protective equipment and now they're profiteering from it. There is increasing confidence that the COVID-19 outbreak likely originated in a Wuhan laboratory, though not as a bioweapon but as part of China's attempt to demonstrate that its efforts to identify and combat viruses are equal to or greater than the capabilities of the United States. "China may attempt to use this crisis now to advance their own agenda worldwide." He explained: "For a critical six-week period of time, China used its influence at the World Health Organization to hide the virus from the world. This was a time where that virus could have been contained in Wuhan. Instead, five million Chinese people went out from Wuhan and propagated the virus around the world." "They hid the virus behind the shield of the World Health Organization," Navarro charged, while they "basically hoard personal protective equipment, and now they are profiteering from it. They basically went around and vacuumed up virtually all of the PPE around the world, including a lot from this country, which was, for humanitarian reasons, sharing our PPE with them," he said. "And what that did was leave people in New York, Milan, and everywhere in between defenseless when it came time to have that PPE."
What does Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus owe to Beijing? China Helped Put This Man In Charge Of the World Health Organization-Is It Paying Off? March 23, 2020 by Peter Hasson - Now, Tedros is leading the WHO, an arm of the United Nations, in providing cover for China's oppressive regime as it attempts to shirk responsibility for the global coronavirus pandemic. Despite all evidence to the contrary, Chinese authorities are weaving a false counternarrative in which China was actually the victim of a foreign virus (introduced by US military personnel) that it quickly moved to contain. And the WHO is helping them do it. Tedros has praised China's "transparency" and held up the country as a model response - even though the communist regime covered and then concealed the severity of the outbreak. Chinese authorities forced scientists who discovered the virus in December to destroy proof of the virus, U.K. newspaper The Sunday Times reported. The Chinese regime also punished doctors who tried to warn the public in the outbreak's early stages and suppressed information about the virus online. A Chinese real estate mogul who criticized his government's response has since gone missing. Approximately seven million people left Wuhan in January, spreading the virus all over China and all over the world, before China restricted travel to Wuhan on Jan. 22, The New York Times reported Sunday.
Tedros praised China's disastrous handling of the pandemic as an example for the rest of the world to follow. "China is actually setting a new standard for outbreak response," he said on Jan. 30, shortly after returning from a trip to Beijing. "Tedros apparently turned a blind eye to what happened in Wuhan and the rest of China and, after meeting with Xi in January, has helped China to play down the severity, prevalence and scope of the COVID-19 outbreak," University of Texas-San Antonio professor Henry Thayer and Citizens Power Initiatives for China vice president Lianchao Han wrote in a March 17 op-ed published in The Hill. The pair called on Tedros to resign, adding: "From the outset, Tedros has defended China despite its gross mismanagement of the highly contagious disease. As the number of cases and the death toll soared, the WHO took months to declare the COVID-19 outbreak as a pandemic, even though it had met the criteria of transmission between people, high fatality rates and worldwide spread."
Johns Hopkins Covid-19 Pandemic Dashboard April 19, 2020 data- Showing 83,805 China confirmed cases compared to 737,319 US - the direct results of
DECEIT, COVER-UPS, EXPLOITATIVE PROFITEERING AND PROPAGANDIZING TO SHIFT BLAME ON AMERICA BY THE PEOPLES REPUBLIC OF CHINA COMMUNIST REGIME
China Coronavirus Deceit April 18,2020 - China and WHO acted maliciously, tried to deceive the world. Gordon Chang believes it's probable that coronavirus pandemic originated in a Wuhan lab. China and the World Health Organization's (WHO) attempts to knowingly deceive the world on the threat of coronavirus were malicious and will see swift retribution, Foreign Affairs journalist Gordon Chang said Saturday. Coronavirus shows elites 'have been getting it wrong for a long time' about China "I think what this really says is that all of our policymakers, all of our analysts, our academics really need to go back and question their assumptions about what happened and in a general way their view of China," Chang said. "Because clearly we have been getting it wrong for a long time. And now this has had consequences which are just disastrous. We are going to bury many Americans because of this." Chang explained that the WHO has been bolstering China's story from the very beginning.
Coronavirus: YouTube bans 'medically unsubstantiated' content 22 April, 2020 - YouTube has banned any coronavirus-related content that directly contradicts World Health Organization (WHO) advice. The Google-owned service says it will remove anything it deems "medically unsubstantiated". Chief executive Susan Wojcicki said the media giant wanted to stamp out "misinformation on the platform". "Anything that would go against World Health Organization recommendations would be a violation of our policy." Maya-Gaia comment: Given the duplicity in WHO's Director General Tedros adopting China's medical advice - first about coronavirus not being contagious - then, as the number of cases and the death toll soared, the WHO took months to declare the COVID-19 outbreak as a pandemic, even though it had met the criteria of transmission between people, high fatality rates and worldwide spread - Google's choice of WHO for "substantiated medical advice" must be a result of its overweening progressive political bias. End Comment
Confirmed: Google Terminated Project Dragonfly, Its Censored Chinese Search Engine Jul 19, Forbes 2019 by Jeb Su - Principal Analyst and Technology Futurist at Atherton Research - At a Senate Judiciary hearing earlier this week, Google's vice president of public policy, Karan Bhatia, confirmed that the tech giant has abandoned work on its secret project begun in 2017, codenamed Dragonfly , a censored search engine tailored for the Chinese market that filters out websites and search results about human rights, democracy, religion, and peaceful protest - all based on web censorship requirements imposed by the Chinese government. Although Google confirmed that its Dragonfly project has been terminated, the Silicon Valley giant fell short in committing not to enter the Chinese search market in the future. However, it's important to keep in mind that Microsoft's Bing search engine is currently available in China and that its search results are being censured following the Chinese government guidelines. European search engine Qwant is another Western cloud search provider that is also allowed to operate in the Chinese market which is currently dominated by Baidu.
China Can Threaten to Withhold Medical Products U.S. Needs to Combat Coronavirus Epidemic Hudson Institute Updated Feb 6, 2020 Tim Morrison - Chinese President Xi Jinping recently warned of the "grave" situation posed by the "accelerating spread" of the coronavirus in China. While many are rightfully concerned about stopping the virus, few are focused on the fact that the more it spreads, the more the U.S. ability to treat any Americans who are stricken is vulnerable to the tender mercies of the Chinese Communist Party because of a strategic shift in health care that occurred without debate or decision in Washington during the Obama/Biden administration. Everything from antibiotics to chemotherapy drugs, from antidepressants to Alzheimer's medications to treatments for HIV/AIDS, are frequently exclusively produced by Chinese manufacturers. What's more, the most effective breathing masks and the bulk of other personal protective equipment - key to containing the spread of coronavirus and protecting health care workers - and even the basic syringe are largely made in China. The basic building blocks of U.S. health care are now under control of the the Chinese Communist Party. Coronavirus is a painful wake-up call to the United States to begin to reclaim control of our medical supply chain from an untrustworthy foreign adversary.
Far beyond simply untrustworthy - this reveals the true level of unmitigated hatred for the American people - endemic in ruling chinese communist party politburo who are OK with threatening to put the lives of potentially hundreds of thousands of Americans at risk unless we admit to our guilt in starting the pandemic that killed thousands of innocent Chinese and hundreds of thousands worldwide and kneel in gratitude for the benevolence of the Peoples Republic for not restricting pharmaceutical exports to our nation. And pointedly, this genocidal threat has arisen at a time when relations between our countries seemed relatively copacetic - with the recent signing of a major trade deal. This insight into the utter lack of empathy, humanism or morality that characterizes the cynical minds of the Chinese Communist leadership leads to an ultimate reality that they would not hesitate to apply a strategic expedient that features killing off tens of millions of Americans in intentional (not collateral) damage.
Consider the action that Communist Party leaders took to punish Japan in 2010 by shutting down exports of rare earth elements (the basic building blocks of everything from your smartphone to advanced missile technology ) as punishment for a collision at sea between a fishing boat and Japanese coast guard vessels in disputed waters. In a confrontation with the U.S. over Taiwan or Hong Kong, or about a decision to punish a state industrial champion like Huawei over some illicit behavior, it's not hard to imagine that Xi might see a really bad flu season as an opportunity to leverage his control of medicine production to achieve an end.
China isn't in compliance with its obligations under the Biological Weapons Convention because it "has engaged in biological activities with potential dual-use applications." Or, as former White House adviser Gary Cohn once observed, "If you're the Chinese and you want to really just destroy us, just stop sending us antibiotics."
This should be an awakening to the existential threat the Sino/Russian alliance poses in regards to their potential to direct a preemptive nuke ICBM strike on the U.S. if they deemed it to be strategically timely and expedient for them. You say -'Oh but China has signed the International No Preemptive Nuke Agreement!' Get real! China has an unbroken record of violating every inter-national agreement when they deem it expendable. 'Oh but China wouldn't want to kill off their profitable American export market.' China's exports to the U.S. comprise less than 18% of their total global sales so the notion that they would not want to kill off their U.S. market is wishful thinking.
China Takes Coronavirus Blame Game Into Conspiracy Theory Territory Radio Free Asia 2020-03-13 - China's propaganda drive to rewrite the narrative surrounding the COVID-19 outbreak took a bizarre turn this week when a Chinese foreign ministry spokesman, Zhao Lijian, tweeted that 'it might be the US army' that brought the coronavirus to China.
China Backs Democratic Resistance to President Trump by William R. Hawkins April 21, 2020 - Democratic governors are forming regional blocs to resist President Donald Trump's efforts to get the American economy moving and put people back to work. They have picked up a powerful ally, one that should give the public cause for alarm. On April 19, the editor-in-chief of the Global Times, a major media outlet of the Chinese Communist Party, wrote an op-ed in which he stated "My advice is to focus China-US anti-epidemic cooperation with US states, while giving the federal government a cold shoulder." Like the Democrats, Hu Xijin attacked Trump's policies and proclaimed, "China needs to take necessary actions and express its strong dissatisfaction." The graphic accompanying Hu's column showed an American fist slamming down in a demand for action being held in check by a Chinese hand held up signaling stop. There is every reason for Beijing to want America's economic downturn and political turmoil to continue as long as possible while it recovers from the effects of the pandemic.
Sampler Articles in Global Times Reflecting Official PROC Communist Propaganda
Washington’s hysterical COVID-19 claims will fail by Hu Xijin Source:Global Times Published: 2020/4/13
What is an alternative for a dying US democracy? by Wenshan Jia Source:Global Times Published: 2020/4/18
Epidemic hinders US military presence near China by Liu Xuanzun Source:Global Times Published: 2020/4/15
China's Dream The Culture of Chinese Communism and the Secret Sources of its Power 1st Edition, Kindle Edition by Kerry Brown (Author) - The Communist Party of China (CPC) is one of the great political forces of modern times. In charge of the destiny of a fifth of humanity, it survives despite the collapse of similar systems elsewhere. Few, however, understand the sources of this resilience, or, for that matter, what the Party itself stands for. China's Dream is the first book to explore the Communist Party as a cultural, rather than a political, entity. It looks at the narratives the Party has created to recount its own history, with the moral story about national rejuvenation and renaissance that these encode. It does not shy away from the thorny issue of how a Party under Mao Zedong, one associated with self-sacrifice, collectivist effort, and anti-individualism, came to pragmatically embrace market capitalism and a new ethics. The tensions to which this gives rise have resulted in a crisis of values, which is now being addressed - with very mixed results - by the CPC. Drawing on his extensive knowledge of contemporary China, Kerry Brown takes us on a unique and fascinating journey through the least understood aspect of China today - not the great economic revolution in the material world, but the deep cultural revolution already underway in Chinese people's daily lives.
In China, two 'subjects' questioned 'emperor' Xi and they disappeared from public view Two Essays hold Xi responsible for the devastation caused inside and outside China due to the poor handling of the Covid crisis April 20, 2020 by Vijay Gokhale - "Beneath the rule of men entirely great, the pen is mightier than the sword" - wrote Edward Bulwer-Lytton in 1839. Many centuries before these words became immortal, the idea of aggrieved subjects penning their petitions directly to the Son of Heaven was well established practice since the earliest times of Chinese Imperial rule. Known as xinfang, it was the means to draw the Emperor's attention to the wrong-doings of his officials and to seek justice, but occasionally it also became a means to question and topple the Son of Heaven.
Two extraordinary 'petitions' have emerged out of China in recent weeks - Ren Zhiqiang's essay "My reading of February 23' and Xu Zhangrun's essay 'Viral Alarm: When Fury overcomes Fear' - Both were written by former members of the Establishment; Xu was a Professor at Qinghua University in Beijing which is like the MIT of China; Ren was a bonafide Red Capitalist. Both have been subject to censorship. And both have disappeared from public view
How the CCP waged Peoples War against Coronavirus [but exported a Global Pandemic]. April 11, 2020 by Charlie Lyons Jones - [comments inserted by maya-gaia that provide more assertive commentary about CCP culpability] The novel coronavirus first appeared in Wuhan, China, in December 2019. It spread throughout the nation in January, and then across the world. Now, there are over 1.2 million confirmed cases across more than 183 countries and regions. [In covering up the Wuhan coronavirus epidemic - the CCP shut down travel from Wuhan to other regions of China but allowed 5 million Wuhan resident to fly all over the world.]
The CCP's defence mobilisation system is based on the Maoist 'people's war' doctrine, which relies on China's size and people to defend the country from attack. The aim is to lure the aggressor deep into the battlefield, wear them down and then strike decisively. In this whole-of-society approach, civilians, militia and the PLA all play a part. On 7 February, Li Wenliang - the doctor detained by police for alerting the public to the virus in November 2019 - died of Covid-19, triggering significant public anger and frustration at the Chinese authorities. The CCP attempted to neutralise this anger by having officials and public figures express sympathy for Li Wenliang on social media. Despite having clear processes, issues with command and control linger in the whole-of-society approach to national defense mobilisation. The CCP's initial response was to suppress all information about the virus generated by the public or medical workers. The deployment of state-owned enterprises, the militia and the PLA was a major test for the CCP's mobilisation system. While it proved effective in the middle and later stages of the pandemic, the lack of transparency [caculated, deliberate deception] and poor command and control systems in the early stages heightened the risk to international public health to unacceptable levels. Effective crisis management requires more than whole-of-society mobilisation. It appears that Xi did too little before it was too late [to prevent the death and suffering of millions and wreaking economies around the world]. See also a catalog of videos on US - China military deployment.
Tucker Carlson: When the coronavirus passes, we must treat China like a dangerous Cold War adversary Adapted from Tucker Carlson's monologue from "Tucker Carlson Tonight" on March 17, 2020 - So once the coronavirus passes and thank God, at some point it will pass, the temptation will be in the United States to return to where we were before. But we can't do that. There's too much to fix, and we've just learned that.
This disaster arrived here for a number of reasons, some of them we could not control. In the age of air travel, disease will always travel quickly. Pandemics are inevitable, we should accept that.
But our responses to them are not inevitable. Nobody forced us to outsource the production of essential medical supplies to China. Our leaders did that and they did it on purpose. They don't want to talk about it now at all, but they did it, and it was a crime
When the country is well enough to function normally, we're going to have to change that immediately for our own sake and for the sake of our children. We need to move essential manufacturing back to the United States. It's crazy not to.
More broadly, we'll need to start treating China like the dangerous Cold War level adversary it has clearly become.
Don't let them lie to you. This crisis began in China, and that's significant, whether coronavirus escaped from a bioresearch lab, as independent Chinese scientists have claimed, or arose in a filthy street market selling wild animals for food. Either way, China's third world health practices played a central role in this disaster. The virus grew to a pandemic because Chinese officials silenced health authorities in that country who tried to warn the public about it. Even now, the Chinese government is determined to crush any unsanctioned reporting from the country.
On Tuesday, Beijing announced it is revoking the press credentials for reporters from the biggest American newspapers. They don't want us to see what they're doing there. And at the same time, they're threatening us. One state-backed media outlet explained that China may cut off our supply of pharmaceuticals. That would kill Americans.
Freedom of Press/Speech - Interactive World Map Color Key shows ranking in degrees of freedom - also index shows rankings for 180 countries (listed in order from best to worst) with USA #35 (just before Papua New Guinea) - Russia #149 (just after Venezuela) and China #177 (just before last #180 North Korea).
China is an imminent threat to the United States. One of the few upsides of this pandemic is we can now see that clearly because it is clear.
But some of us can't see it. Amazingly, our ruling class is taking China's side, and that again, is the good news about a crisis. It clarifies things. You can see exactly what side people are on.
Now, some of our leaders are doing this on purpose because they're getting rich from China. Many of the media are just too dumb to know the difference. Dumbness is almost always the explanation for how they behave. China understands how to control their emotions and therefore their minds.
The Chinese government knows that identity politics is the greatest weakness in the American system. It always is the greatest weakness in every country it infects. And that's why they don't allow identity politics in China.
The Chinese know that any debate in this country can be derailed instantly if someone screams "racist" as someone inevitably does. So the Chinese have decided to use wokeness against us. The most racist power on Earth -- this is the country that puts Muslims in concentration camps. The country that stamps out Tibetan culture; the country that would not accept a single Somali refugee at gunpoint. This country is calling us bigoted. It's hilarious in a way.
What's amazing is how many in our media take it very seriously. On Tuesday Xinhua News -- that's one of China's propaganda organs, tweeted this: "Racism is not the right tool to cover your own incompetence." Okay.
In Europe, China actually promoted the spread of coronavirus. In early February of this year, China global television network released a video entitled "Italian residents hug Chinese people to encourage them in coronavirus fight." The video featured a young Chinese man wearing a face mask soliciting hugs from passersby. A month later that video doesn't look quite as heartwarming.
More recently, the same Chinese network tweeted this: "Shall we call H1N1 American flu? No, we'd rather focus on saving lives. So said the country that lied about the pandemic.
By the way, and point of fact: The 2009 H1N1 outbreak began in Mexico, not the United States.
China dominates America because our own leaders sold us out.
Meanwhile, China's ambassadors are already spreading the lie that the Wuhan virus originated here in America, maybe created in a lab by the Pentagon. Don't be shocked if at least one American media outlet promotes that idea. Many of them already parroting the rest of the Chinese Communist Party line.
A week ago, aging propagandist David Frum of The Atlantic suggested calling the coronavirus "The Trump plague" instead of the Wuhan virus. On Tuesday, NBC News sent a tweet suggesting President Trump's use of the phrase "Chinese virus" was, "both inaccurate and harmful in tying racist associations between the virus and those from China."
Another statement written by morons in our news media. How is it inaccurate to call a virus from China "Chinese"?
The president, to his credit, does not seem intimidated.
Reporter: China and others have criticized you for using the phrase Chinese virus. How do you feel about that? Are you guys going to continue using that phrase?
President Trump: Well, China was putting out information which was false that our military gave this to them. That was false. And rather than having an argument I said, I have to call it where it came from. It did come from China.
Reporter: Critics say using that phrase creates a stigma?
Trump: No, I don't think so. No, I think saying that our military gave it to them creates a stigma.
Good for him. That was Trump at his very best.
Why would our media take the side of China in a crisis like this? Well, because instead of preparing to confront China and free ourselves from their control, our professional classes are defending the Chinese government and sharing their propaganda. Why?
Well, it's not a sinister plot by Asian communists -- it's actually worse than that. In many ways, you can't blame the Chinese for this. They're doing what any government should be doing. They're putting their country and its interests first. If it takes a little disinformation to get it done, they're willing to do that.
No. China dominates America because our own leaders sold us out. They didn't know what they were doing. But even worse, they were greedy. They were looking out for short term benefits for themselves, rather than long term security for our country.
Some of them seem to generally despise America, particularly in academia, which is why they race to call this country evil while happily placating Beijing. That's what Hollywood does every day of the year. Someday these people may be punished for what they've done. Again, it's a crime. At a minimum, they will have to be deprived of power or influence going forward.
But for now, we don't have time for that. We need to be honest about what the problem is, and we need to work as hard as we can to fix it.
Coronavirus Fears Fed by Soviet-style Agitprop From Russia, China, and Iran Mar 10, 2020 by Helle C. Dale - In China, Russia, and Iran, conspiracy theories about the origins of the coronavirus are swirling through government-run media outlets. KEY TAKEAWAYS: Never letting a crisis go to waste, propagandists are using the coronavirus to spread disinformation and conspiracy theories about the United States. Coronavirus propaganda fits into classic Soviet-era propaganda strategies, dating back to the Cold War. The U.S. will have to be equally deliberate in its efforts to fight not just the spread of the virus, but also the conspiracy theories spread by foreign actors. Never letting a crisis go to waste, propagandists are using the coronavirus to spread disinformation and conspiracy theories about the United States. In China, Russia, and Iran, conspiracy theories about the origins of the coronavirus are swirling through government-run media outlets, pointing fingers at the U.S. military's biological-warfare labs or the CIA. Not only do these falsehoods distract from identifying the real source of the problem (the Chinese government's delayed public acknowledgement of the epidemic), they also slander the image of the United States globally.
The Chinese military news website Xilu.com recently wrote that the coronavirus virus is "a biochemical weapon produced by the U.S. to target China." In Iran, the Tehran government downplayed the virus and irresponsibly encouraged pilgrims to visit the holy city of Qom, which is now ground zero of the coronavirus outbreak in Iran, one of the worst globally. Clerics have accused the United States of introducing the virus "to damage [the city's] culture and honor." Iranians now widely believe the United States is behind the virus. Russia lost no time weaponizing the coronavirus against the United States. Thousands of Russian social media accounts on Instagram, Facebook, and Twitter have been spreading the line that the U.S. government created the virus to "wage economic war on China" and propagate anti-China messages.
Coronavirus propaganda fits into classic Soviet-era propaganda strategies, dating back to the Cold War. In 1983, a pro-Soviet Indian newspaper, the Patriot, first published an article to the effect that the AIDS virus was a biological weapon created by the U.S. military. After circulating for several years in KGB-controlled publications, the slander was picked up in 1985 by the Soviet cultural newspaper Literaturnaya Gazeta (Literary Gazette), opening the propaganda floodgates. In 1987 alone, it was reprinted or broadcast in more than 80 countries in 30 languages. The story was highly damaging to the U.S. international image. Similar damage is entirely possible today if coronavirus disinformation stands unchallenged. During the Cold War, the Reagan administration created the Active Measures Working Group to expose Soviet propaganda. Today, the U.S. government will have to be equally deliberate in its efforts to fight not just the spread of the virus itself, but also the conspiracy theories spread by foreign actors.
China Is Not the Hero of the Pandemic You can criticize Trump without parroting Beijing's propaganda Slate/THE WORLD MARCH 20, 2020 by Charles Dunst - When Chinese scientists identified a mystery virus in December 2019, they were ordered to stop tests, destroy samples, and suppress the news. When Chinese medical professionals began to sound the alarm, they were seized by police. For weeks, when Chinese state media went on air or to print, they ignored the virus's spread. When government cadres heard rumors of some new SARS-like virus, they kept their heads down and continued praising party leader Xi Jinping. China's strategy to fight COVID-19, the disease caused by the novel coronavirus, though later praised by the World Health Organization and scientists worldwide, consisted of cover-ups, lies, and repression. It also failed miserably, exposing the world to this deadly sickness. After claiming yesterday to have no new cases of the virus, China is now trying to take a victory lap, emphasizing the strength of its response - and the United States' apparent failures - while spreading conspiracies that the U.S. government manufactured the virus. And while U.S. President Donald Trump's sluggishness toward the outbreak merits criticism, China's endangering of the world with its initial incompetence is certainly more to blame. Some of Trump's fiercest public critics, however, have in their condemnations of the president remarkably ignored China's faults or even praised the Chinese Communist Party's response. In doing so, they are propagating falsehoods and Chinese propaganda.
Hoping to preempt any potential loss of foreign trust, China's propagandists have gone into overdrive. Wuhan health officials by the end of December had confirmed nearly three dozen cases of the virus and closed a market they thought was related to its spread. And yet Chinese authorities spent January denying the virus could spread between humans - something doctors had known was happening since December - and allowed a Lunar New Year banquet involving tens of thousands of families to take place in Wuhan as planned. The Chinese government later let some 5 million people leave the city without screening.
Remarkably, according to even the CCP's own account, Xi knew about the virus for two weeks before saying anything to the public. The CCP's flagship newspaper, People's Daily, mentioned the epidemic and Xi's actions to fight it for the first time only on Jan. 21 - the same day the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention confirmed the first coronavirus case in the United States.
China's failure to contain the virus can be explained by the divergence between the country's modernized public health system and its outdated autocratic political structures. The ills of the draconian latter negated the potential benefits of the former, allowing the virus to spread from Wuhan to Thailand and South Korea and beyond.
Trust for Xi's regime is now waning within China and across the public health world. Some global leaders are increasingly doubting the reliability of China's data and the usefulness of its guidance on combating the virus, but others, like Italy's foreign minister, Luigi Di Maio, continue to praise Chinese assistance.
Seemingly hoping to preempt any potential loss of foreign trust, China's propagandists have gone into overdrive, spectacularizing their country's purported altruism and leadership: The Chinese Embassy in Italy, in a statement laden with South China Sea-related propaganda, claimed to be "donating" ventilators and sending experts to that country; journalists reported that China is sending similar "aid" to Spain; Chinese experts have carried out training sessions for 10 Pacific Island countries and dispatched medical experts, along with supplies of masks and virus detection kits, to Iran and Iraq.
This is all part of Xi's wide-scale propaganda effort to gaslight the world into believing that China is not only not responsible for but is responding best to the pandemic, ultimately portraying his country as a magnanimous and trustworthy global leader.
But many of China's claims are easily refuted. China did not stop the virus from spreading; Beijing's negligence allowed the outbreak to go global. China is not donating but selling ventilators, face masks, and other goods to Italy and Spain. According to Italian media, an array of other European countries are also planning to purchase ventilators from China.
Xi's regime, even amid a crisis it enabled, is just applying the same simple economic strategy as it does through the Belt and Road Initiative, China's Marshall Plan - like state-backed global investment and marketing campaign: exporting domestic overcapacity abroad. China, home to too many unemployed workers and industrial firms, generally sends both to the global south through the initiative.
And now, as the world - thanks to Chinese state failure - gasps for air, China is there to sell us its excess ventilators and face masks. These sales will both serve as fodder for propaganda and help the country rejuvenate its shellshocked business sector.
And yet, despite all of this, more than a few Western thought leaders have aped Chinese falsehoods to critique Trump's apparent failures and praise Xi's purported successes.
China's strategy to fight COVID-19, the disease caused by the novel coronavirus, though later praised by the World Health Organization and scientists worldwide, consisted of cover-ups, lies, and repression. It also failed miserably, exposing the world to this deadly sickness.
Some of Trump's fiercest public critics, have in their condemnations of the president remarkably ignored China's faults or even praised the Chinese Communist Party's response. In doing so, they are propagating falsehoods - and Chinese propaganda.
The details of China's critical missteps are long-running and have been widely reported. When academics in 2007 and 2019 warned that a SARS-like virus could emerge from China's wet markets, the CCP allowed these markets to stay open. A February Washington Post analysis of Chinese statements, leaked accounts, and interviews with public health officials and medical experts concluded that China's "bureaucratic culture that prioritizes political stability over all else probably allowed the virus to spread farther and faster." A March study by researchers at the U.K.'s University of Southampton showed that if China had acted three weeks earlier than it did, the number of coronavirus cases could have been reduced by 95 percent and its geographic spread limited significantly.
China, Deconstructing Xi Jinping's Imperial Temptation worldcrunch March 12, 2018 by Dominique Moisi - By becoming president for life, Xi Jinping is bringing China back to its imperial history, taking advantage of the exceptional development of his country but also of America's mistakes. But Chinese coming fortunes are still very much up in the air. China, Deconstructing Xi Jinping's Imperial Temptation "Power tends to corrupt, and absolute power corrupts absolutely." Lord Acton's famous remark comes quickly to mind after China's decision to remove term limits for its president. From now on Xi Jinping can be considered "president for life."
It's clear that contrary to the hopes, or rather the illusions, of many Westerners, capitalist China is not progressing towards "our" model of liberal democracy. It perceives this model as structurally dysfunctional. China now presents itself as an almost perfect form of the absolutist counter-model that draws from its past, now more than ever, to find the keys to its future. It sees no contradictions between digital revolution and imperial restoration, quite the opposite. Since China reached greatness through its Empire, it is by returning to a form of imperial system that it will regain its rightful place in the international system - the first place, of course. This spectacular return of China to the world's economic, strategic, political and henceforth ideological stage is at least as much the product of our involuntary assistance as it is the result of positive efforts made by the Chinese themselves. On four occasions over the past 15 years, the Western world - and especially the United States - has done everything in its power to propel China to its current position. First, there was the massive strategic error in 2003 of invading of Iraq by the United States and some of its allies, most notably Britain. Then came financial and economic recklessness and blindness from 2007 onwards, followed by the return of populisms in our democratic systems. And now, the spectre of a trade war, which divides and weakens the Western world more than it actually threatens China. Everything is happening as if we were rushing to pass on the torch of history, from our uncertain and wavering hands straight into China's.
Longevity is not necessarily a guarantee of quality, even in autocratic regimes. To understand the dramatic change in the course of history - for China, as well as for the world - we must go back to the late 1970s. In the aftermath of Mao Zedong's death, the establishment of a collective power at China's helm, at the instigation of Deng Xiaoping, was intended to protect the country from the downward slide of power when it's held by a single man. The bloody excesses of the Cultural Revolution were dominating the minds of the new leaders. In 2018, on the contrary, everything is happening as if the priority is to protect the new emperor from the risks of revenge from all those - and there are many of them - who have been the victims of the anti-corruption struggle, which Xi Jinping has led with determination, if not brutality. But by moving away from Deng Xiaoping, and getting closer to Vladimir Putin (the new czar), is Xi (the new emperor) really giving himself the means to consolidate the Party's power and China's influence in the world? Or should we fear the negative long-term impact of this revolution on the future of the Chinese Communist Party and China as a whole? about worldcrunch
The coronavirus pandemic is the breakthrough Xi Jinping has been waiting for Macleans April 3, 2020 by Terry Glavin - The Chinese state is committing vast resources to a hybrid strategy of intensified propaganda and information control in lockstep with an aggressive Russian-style disinformation effort. The plague that broke out in the Chinese city of Wuhan last December has now spread to the four corners of the earth, and its coming ravages can only be glimpsed in the limited forecasting capacities of epidemiology. It's a science that relies on predictive analytics and models that can be skewed by any number of confounding variables, so there's little certainty about what's in store for us all.
As the geopolitical upheavals set off by the pandemic shudder with a force without precedent since the Second World War, some things, however, are clear and plain. China's most draconian lockdowns have been lifted. Beijing is claiming victory over the plague. And the Chinese Communist Party is seizing what its senior officials are calling the "opportunity" of the pandemic to realize the party's long-game objective of fully eclipsing North America and Europe in the global order.
"China's more confrontational posture on COVID-19 represents a clear departure from its past behavior," the ASD analysis concludes. "We have been able to see, in near-real time, Chinese state-backed media and government interlocutors borrowing a page from the Russian playbook in an attempt to influence global public opinion."
The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic is the breakthrough Xi Jinping, China's all-powerful paramount leader, has been waiting for. And he's making his move. "Beijing used the opening presented by the 2008 economic downturn to reach parity; to position itself as an alternative world leader. In COVID-19, Beijing sees the chance to win."
China's Coronavirus Information Offensive Beijing Is Using New Methods to Spin the Pandemic to Its Advantage Foreign Affairs April 22, 2020 by Laura Rosenberger - When reports of the novel coronavirus surfaced in December, the CCP at first focused on suppressing them - most notoriously by punishing the "whistleblower doctor" Li Wenliang, who later succumbed to the virus about which he had tried to sound the alarm. (Censors were overwhelmed by the eruption of online tributes following his death, some of which invoked the song "Do You Hear the People Sing?" from Les Misérables - a rallying cry for protesters in Hong Kong - or cited the article in the Chinese constitution that provides for freedom of expression.) But as China began to get the virus's spread under control internally and outbreaks started outside its borders, the focus changed.
From the first days of COVID-19's appearance in the city of Wuhan, China's leaders focused on control - not only of the coronavirus itself but also of information about it. They suppressed initial reporting and research about the outbreak, thereby slowing efforts to understand the virus and its pandemic potential. They called for "increased internet control" when the Politburo Standing Committee met in early February. They even sent "Internet police" to threaten people posting criticism of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and its handling of the virus. Before long, that effort at controlling information went global. As it began to contain the outbreak within its own borders, Beijing launched an assertive external information campaign aimed at sculpting global discussion of its handling of the virus. But in recent weeks, Beijing has taken a more aggressive approach than usual, even experimenting with tactics drawn from Russia's more nihilistic information operations playbook. That strategy aims not so much to promote a particular idea as to sow doubt, dissension, and disarray - including among Americans - in order to undermine public confidence in information and prevent any common understanding of facts from taking hold.
Stealth War: How China Took Over While America's Elite Slept video 2019 book by Robert Spalding - China expert Robert Spalding reveals the shocking success China has had infiltrating American institutions and compromising our national security. The media often suggest that Russia poses the greatest threat to America's national security, but the real danger lies farther east. While those in power have been distracted and disorderly, China has waged a six-front war on America's economy, military, diplomacy, technology, education, and infrastructure--and they're winning. It's almost too late to undo the shocking, though nearly invisible, victories of the Chinese. In Stealth War, retired Air Force Brigadier General Robert Spalding reveals China's motives and secret attacks on the West. Chronicling how our leaders have failed to protect us over recent decades, he provides shocking evidence of some of China's most brilliant ploys, including:
- Placing Confucius Institutes in universities across the United States that serve to monitor and control Chinese students on campus and spread communist narratives to unsuspecting American students.
- Offering enormous sums to American experts who create investment funds that funnel technology to China.
- Signing a thirty-year agreement with the US that allows China to share peaceful nuclear technology, ensuring that they have access to American nuclear know-how.
Spalding's concern isn't merely that America could lose its position on the world stage. More urgently, the Chinese Communist Party has a fundamental loathing of the legal protections America grants its people and seeks to create a world without those rights. Despite all the damage done so far, Spalding shows how it's still possible for the U.S. and the rest of the free world to combat--and win--China's stealth war.
Assessing China as a Complex Competitor and its Continued Evolution of Tactics Below the Threshold of Armed Conflict by Matthias Wasinger June 17, 2020 - Editor's Note: This article is part of our Below Threshold Competition: China writing contest May 1, to July 31, 2020. - Summary: The Thucydides trap - it is a phenomenon destining a hegemon and an emerging power to war. The People's Republic of China and the United States of America are currently following this schema. China aims at reaching a status above all others. To achieve that, it employs all instruments of national power in a concerted smart power approach, led by the constant political leadership. China fills emerging gaps in all domains and exploits U.S. isolationism.
It is not alarmist to say that the world is isolating China April 20, 2020 平正和 | 世界隔离中国绝非危言耸听 about supchina - As the pandemic intensifies and "Wolf Warrior" diplomacy expands, the conflicts arising between China and Western countries during the fight against the pandemic have also intensified. If this situation is not changed, after the pandemic ends, isolation and decoupling from China will no longer be hypothetical: it will be our cruel reality. At first, it was mainly the media and parliamentarians who criticized us. Nowadays, leaders of many countries have bluntly criticized China. The virus has transformed Western public opinion of us into hatred. This hatred will eventually be translated into policies of decoupling.
The problems of 5G, Huawei, cybersecurity, the South China Sea, the Taiwan Strait, and the trade war that we have with Western countries, especially the U.S., don't seem so urgent at this current moment when compared with issues involving the pandemic. However, these issues will not go away. On the contrary, due to the outbreak, the world's understanding of us has changed dramatically, and our country's international reputation has suffered to a certain extent. More importantly, new problems and challenges are emerging. We will soon face the most severe international situation since reform and opening up, even more severe than the wave of sanctions 30 years ago. [Editor's note: In the aftermath of China's crackdown on pro-democracy demonstrators at Tiananmen.] Faced with this situation, from the highest levels down to the people, we should clearly understand what we're facing and how we plan to cope with and resolve this situation as fast as possible. Let us not fall to delusions of grandeur and think we're infallible, believing that the world can't separate from us and that whoever decouples with China will lose out on opportunities.
In recent years, our relations with Western countries have deteriorated. Some people say this is because China is strong and the West wants to contain China's rise. This is by no means the main reason. Diplomatically speaking, challenging the international order, competing for international leadership, and putting on an aggressive diplomatic posture, especially through using the market and national financial resources as weapons - have been the most important causes. In terms of internal affairs, the increasing lack of transparency and the spread of extreme leftists has also scared the West. Wolf Warrior diplomacy perfectly integrates the elements that most disturb the West, and brings them directly to the world's attention.
China's labor advantage has long been replaced by Southeast Asian countries, and the infrastructure and engineering teams of Western countries are no worse than ours. The return of the manufacturing industry promoted by Western countries is based on industrial security, national security, and the strategy of preventing excessive dependence on China. The Chinese economy is already highly dependent on foreign trade (less than 20% in the U.S.). Once China is decoupled from the world economy, it will be a disaster. Although the decoupling between China and the United States and the decoupling between China and the West will harm everyone, they will harm China the most. The dividends from 40 years of reform will be exhausted.
Did Xi Jinping Deliberately Sicken the World? PRC moral turpitude forces us to consider the unthinkable. thediplomat April 15, 2020 By Ben Lowsen - We often ascribe a basic level of humanity to even the cruelest leaders, but People's Republic of China leader Xi Jinping's actions have forced us to rethink this assumption. Although the emergence of the novel coronavirus now known as SARS-CoV-2 was probably not due to China's actions, the emphasis that its authoritarian system places on hiding bad news likely gave the disease a sizable head start infecting the world. But most ominously, China's obsession with image and Machtpolitik raises serious questions about its lack of moral limits. At some point the Chinese Communist Party learned of the epidemic and made a decision to hide its existence, hoping it went away. Exposés in Hong Kong's South China Morning Post and the Chinese mainland's Caixin show that the information that did flow out of China early in the crisis did so only because of the courage of individual Chinese people in the face of government repression. People in the Wuhan epicenter, however, began to get wise - and scared - by the end of December 2019, forcing their government to say something. The authorities gave the impression of a nontransmissible disease already under containment. We know now this was entirely false, likely designed more to ease civil unrest than protect the people. The mayor of Wuhan even suggested that the central government prevented him from revealing details about the epidemic until January 20. Considering the first public announcements came out of Wuhan on January 1, we can assume that Xi had a sense of the danger prior to that.
Clearly, downplaying the disease wasn't working and it was time for the Party to get serious. But how serious? Would it provide full cooperation to the international community? Would being seen as the source of this virus hurt its international image? Beyond these, there was a darker dimension: the more Beijing cooperated, the less the disease stood to affect other countries. This includes countries China sees as a threat to its existence, like the United States. Why should China suffer the effects of a pandemic while others stayed safe - and increased their strength relative to China - based on China's own costly experience? Such a question is of course inimical to human decency. And yet we must consider that Xi Jinping has produced the greatest program of ethnic cleansing in the world today. He has curtailed freedoms in China severely and is the father of the panopticon state. His incessant military buildup threatens neighbors while using economic and other subversive means to erode the sovereignty of countries around the world. We should not assume it was beyond his imagining to withhold a degree of support from the international community to ensure that China would not suffer alone.
Strong evidence supports this idea. Hearing the World Health Organization (WHO) repeat and praise the Party line while giving short shrift to health advice until quite recently has alarmed many. Seeing Beijing sell defective wares and claim it as humanitarian aid has angered many more. Spreading disinformation during the crisis and hinting at using life-saving goods for leverage - while denying even the faintest hint of wrongdoing - I suspect have ruined China's reputation for some time to come. In short, China's good offices have been reserved almost entirely for burnishing its image at the world's expense, while calling it "the greatest kindness and good deeds." None of this can prove whether or when Xi made a deliberate decision to withhold information in order to imperil others. However, as a long-time student and admirer of China, it is with great sadness I must concede that such a state - and its increasingly paranoid leader - might very well provide less than full cooperation to stem the pandemic of the century in the crass pursuit of its own interests. This may constitute biological warfare. But even if it doesn't Xi should be brought to account for his other crimes against humanity.
Fateful Triangle How China Shaped U.S.-India Relations During the Cold War brookings April, 2020 by Tanvi Madan Fateful Triangle updates our understanding of the diplomatic history of U.S.-India relations, highlighting China's central role in it, reassesses the origins and practice of Indian foreign policy and nonalignment, and provides historical context for the interactions between the three countries. Such focus would place the United States out of step with virtually every country in the region. Although many partners will be privately sympathetic to critiques of China's behaviour, few will judge it to be in their national interest to join a public narrative war. Particularly after China's economy rebounds ahead of the United States- and Europe's, China's economic clout will become too large for neighbouring countries to ignore. This will lead to heightened tensions across the region, as seemingly peripheral issues such as nomenclature for the pandemic, decisions on Belt and Road Initiative projects, technical standards for 5G build-outs or votes for candidates to head UN specialized agencies become proxies for measuring support for Washington or Beijing. Even though top US and Chinese diplomats likely will continue to mouth platitudes about not forcing other countries to choose between them, space for countries to remain neutral will shrink with each discrete decision. It is still far from certain that Washington will persist indefinitely in ratcheting up its rivalry with Beijing. Future administrations may prioritise the development of an Asia strategy for dealing with China, rather than concentrating on bilateral confrontation with Beijing. It's also not certain that China will maintain such an abrasive external posture indefinitely. But for the time being, the reality is what it is. Buckle up, because things are likely to get worse before they get better.
When the World Wasn't Looking, China Built the 'Perfect Dictatorship' japan-forward by Haiying Yang February 23, 2019 - CCP, Chinese xenophobia, Xi Jinping, dictator for life, ethnic cleansing, Han chauvinism, PRC, Qin dynasty, Senkaku Islands, South China Seas, Tibetans, Uyghurs, Xinjiang-Uyghur
In March 2018, at the 13th National People's Congress, China's parliament, Xi Jinping orchestrated the scrapping of term limits for the PRC president and vice president and the formal enshrinement of "Xi Jinping Thought" in China's constitution. In effect he laid the groundwork for establishing a "dictator for life" system. Emboldened by this newly acquired carte blanche, he then proclaimed that "modernization of socialism will be realized in China" by 2035. The undoubted affluence that reform and opening up has brought to China has only benefited a minority - members of the 90-million-strong Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and their relatives and cronies. At the same time peasants, who make up the overwhelming majority of China's population, continue to be worked mercilessly for subsistence wages that still are not enough to cover basic necessities. Moreover, because of the requirement of rural household registration, peasants do not enjoy the same welfare benefits and treatment as do urban dwellers and CCP members. The children of peasants and their children for generations to come are destined to remain peasants, with their path to making it in the world permanently blocked. The result is that, in name and reality, peasants have become victims of "household registration apartheid." Nor is the CCP inclined to reform this unfair system. The foreign policy being pursued by the PRC clearly proves that the "five principles of peaceful coexistence" expounded by the first generation PRC leader Zhou Enlai, together with other soothing pronouncements from Beijing, were nothing more than expedient tools for fooling outsiders.
After COVID-19: China's Role in the World and U.S.-China Relations Council on Foreign Relations Conference Call - April 16, 2020 - 59 min - As China begins to recover from the coronavirus pandemic, the United States and other countries continue to struggle to contain the spread. In this call, panelists discuss the global role of China and the future of U.S.-China relations in a post-pandemic world. HAASS: Bob, do you see any evidence that China, as it begins - might be ahead of on the recovery track - ahead of where other countries are, including the United States? Do you see any evidence or do you think you might come to see evidence that China might try to exploit this situation of what you might call American strategic distraction? Do you see anything with the South China Sea, with Taiwan, with North Korea, or anybody else where China might be interested in fomenting something or allowing something, if only to distract attention at home also? See also cfr: China
A U.S. Grand Strategy for the Post Pandemic World Center for Global Policy March 25, 2020 by Muqtedar - Many geopolitical experts are concerned that this crisis, more than any other this century, has the potential to permanently reconstitute the global order. In this context, there are two scenarios for a U.S. grand strategy. The first will compel the United States to invest in itself, and the second may empower it to reshuffle the deck and rebuild a more U.S.-friendly global order. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the United States shifted from containing communism to combating violent extremism and containing nuclear proliferation and regional challenges to U.S. hegemony. Now, Washington faces the global challenge of the economic and military rise of China. The current grand strategy is still a variant of the containment doctrine - global engagement to contain any threat to U.S. preeminence globally, regionally, militarily, and economically. Currently, the United States has two real challengers: China and Iran. The challenges posed by Russia and North Korea are limited, geographically speaking. The combination of coronavirus pandemic and U.S. sanctions are ravaging Iran's economy and diminishing the capacity of the Iranian state and its proxies. This means the epicenter of geopolitical contestation will be confined to a U.S.-China struggle in the Asian theater as well as on the global stage.
China's Vision of Victory Can American Values Survive in a Chinese World? Foreign Policy October 12, 2019 by Tanner Greer - Review of China's Vision of Victory by Jonathan D.T. Ward - By 2050, the Chinese aim to have a military "second to none," to become the global center for technology innovation, and to serve as the economic anchor of a truly global trade and infrastructure regime - an economic bloc that would be unprecedented in human history. In their speeches and documents, Chinese leaders call this vision of a China-centered future - a future where a U.S.-led system has been broken apart and discarded - a "community of common destiny for mankind." That ambition debunks the myth of a multipolar future: China seeks dominance, not just a share of the pie. This is a blind spot in Ward's analysis. The term "United Front" (the party's favored moniker for institutions that co-opt or turn people to serve the party's objectives) does not appear in China's Vision of Victory. "Influence operations" shows up just twice, with the gloss that these operations are "meant to distort a country's discourse on China and to constrain action against Beijing." Framing these operations purely in geopolitical terms misstates the challenge they pose. These operations are not just about shaping the opinions of foreign-policy elites but about controlling and coercing enemies of the Communist regime who live outside China's borders.
The US trade war can't derail China's development South China Morning Post Here are three reasons why: Michael Tai June 8 2019 - China's tech progress has already reached a turning point, its size grants it unusual abilities and its population is conditioned to be entrepreneurial; the trade war won't change any of this. If the US trade war aims to hold back China's development, it may already be too late. Regardless of the outcome of tensions, China will almost certainly continue its present trajectory. Here's why. First, China has already reached critical mass in technological capacity. It has moved from imitator to innovator, and become a world leader in areas such as solar energy, mobile payments and high-speed rail. In 2011, the Royal Society saw the landscape changing "dramatically" when China overtook the UK to become the second-leading producer of research publications. Kai-Fu Lee, former president of Google China and an expert on artificial intelligence, believes China is rapidly becoming a global leader in AI and may surpass the United States - 5G is only one of several crucial technologies where the US has fallen behind due to policy missteps. By deciding against a single telecommunications standard, the US fragmented its telecoms industry and has no 5G contender today. The fastest supercomputer, the largest radio telescope and the first landing on the dark side of the moon are other feathers in the Chinese cap.
Second, the size of the Chinese domestic market provides important advantages when it comes to innovation. China has the world's largest fintech market, where digital payments are 50 times larger than the US, while its three biggest internet companies - Baidu, Alibaba and Tencent - are investing in machine learning and artificial intelligence. AI is built on big data, and because of its vast number of internet users, China has caught up to the US at an unexpected pace. Trump's trade fight with China is just a damaging sideshow. Economies of scale allow quicker recovery of R&D and tooling expenditure, translating into a cost advantage over rivals, especially in sectors requiring heavy front-end investments such as hi-speed rail, nuclear power plants, solar panels, power turbines, electric vehicles and drones. China's advantage is no longer low-cost labour but its enormous pool of hands-on technicians and engineers able to turn blueprints into prototypes, sometimes in a matter of days. Nevertheless, there is nothing original or unique about the Chinese development model. China is essentially replicating many of the policy features of Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and Singapore at an earlier developmental stage when the state steered the economy and controlled key sectors such as banking, telecommunications, steel and energy.
But China's rise, in tandem with the Asian tigers, is also powered by cultural character, a factor often overlooked by economists. If England is a nation of shopkeepers, to quote Adam Smith, China is a nation of entrepreneurs. American anthropologist and explorer David P. Barrows considered the way "their keen sense for trade and their indifference to physical hardship and danger, make the Chinese almost a dominant factor whenever political barriers have not been raised against their entry". Confucian virtue can be compared to the Weberian Protestant ethic. The Chinese language is full of maxims exhorting learning and hard work, and anyone who has been to China will not fail to notice the way hardship is accepted as a normal part of life. Hong Kong tycoon Robert Kuok calls the Chinese the "most amazing economic ants on Earth" but their success draws both admiration as well as envy and angst, and not unlike the Jews, the Chinese often face discrimination, expulsion and violence. President Donald Trump's tariffs and entity list represent the latest round of exclusion which may succeed in delaying - but not derailing - China's development. Russia is ready to fill China's food gap left by US in trade war fallout. See also:Ant Financial, a China payments company 2017
The Committee on the Present Danger: China Oct 29, 2020 - The Committee on the Present Danger: China is a wholly-independent and non-partisan effort to educate and inform American citizens and policymakers about the existential threats presented from the Peoples Republic of China under the misrule of the Chinese Communist Party. Its purpose is to explain these threats that range from: the PRC's accelerating military buildup; its active information and political warfare that targets the American people and our business, political and media elites; cyber warfare; and, economic warfare. The Committee takes no ideological point of view, rather it relies on the facts as reasonable people can understand them. Armed with these facts, the Committee believes Americans' abundant common sense will prompt them to demand of their elected officials that all reasonable measures be taken to defend the United States, its vital economic interests, and the security of its citizens. BLM and Communist China BLM leaders are closely tied to the Chinese Communist Party See other revelations: U.S. Government Moves to Sanction Ant Technology Group 10/26/20 - C.P.D.C. Open Letter Urges President to Oppose C.C.P. 'Companies' Official and 'Backdoor' Access to Unwitting U.S. Investor's Savings. The Committee today published an open letter sent to President Trump by sixty former senior civilian and military national security practitioners, business and clerical leaders, human rights activists and other patriotic Americans. The signatories urged him and his administration to intervene to protect mostly unsuspecting U.S. investors from non-transparent Chinese corporations that have significant exposure to human rights, national security and/or financial risks.
China's hegemonic intentions and trajectory: Will it opt for benevolent, coercive, or Dutch-style hegemony? April 18, 2019 by Lukas K. Danner, Félix E. Martín - Abstract: China's unprecedented economic growth led some scholars to conclude that it will replace the United States as the future global hegemon. However, China's intentions in exercising future global leadership are yet unknown and difficult to extrapolate from its often contradictory behavior. A preliminary overview of China's island building in the South China Sea reveals its potentially coercive intentions. This inference is consistent with the analysis of those who prognosticate China's violent rise.
Articles About Reassessing Post-Pandemic U.S. Strategic China Policy
Preemptive Existential Defense
Maya-Gaia Comment April 30, 2020: Today is my 92 birthday - Yea! My China Existential Chronicles compiles articles providing insight for promoting/justifying an existential imperative for the U.S. to take strategic action to prevent a preemptive nuclear attack by the rapidly consolidating Sino-Russo Military Alliance. Both expansionistic governments plan to split the world into two hegemon under their respective authoritarian Communist Regimes - wherein liberty, freedom, egalitarianism, religion, individualism are permanently extinguished for all humanity. This decisive action needs to be sooner than later because the unprecedented rate at which Russia and particularly Superpower China are building offensive weaponry will soon close the brief window of opportunity for our U.S. Democratic Republic to survive and revive domestic and global intercourse.
I imagine a scenario where the U.S. notifies Russia an hour before executing a massive strike on China's defensive assets that it will hold off it's ICBM arsenal programmed for Russian targets as long as Russia does not retaliate for the attack on China. (Noting that any incoming ICBMs originating in Atlantic or Artic Oceans will be Russian.) In the post-apocalyptic aftermath - with China reduced to a non-viable society we assume Russia will be inclined to abandon it's hegemonic aspirations and integrate into a relatively peaceful world order.
Of course I realize the U.S. will never be able to even consider such a scenario but in my old age - I thought I'd just add it to my Chronicles in the remote possibility that my website will survive in some underground digital venue in a future where the Communist Chinese Empire rules over a vassal Russia and all of humanity. End Comment
Partnership is much better for China than it is for Russia Just how much better might not become clear for a few years yet Jul 27 2019 - It is the love triangle of global politics. Since the second world war, China, Russia and the United States have repeatedly swapped partners. The collapse of the Sino-Soviet pact after the death of Josef Stalin was followed by Richard Nixon's visit to China in 1972 and Mikhail Gorbachev's detente with China 30 years ago. Today's pairing, between Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping, was cemented in 2014 after Russia annexed Crimea. In each case the country that was left on its own has always seemed to pay a price, by being stretched militarily and diplomatically. This time is different. Though America is out in the cold, the price is falling chiefly on Russia. China dominates every aspect of the two countries' partnership. Its economy is six times larger (at purchasing-power parity) and its power is growing, even as Russia's fades. What seemed a brilliant way for Mr Putin to turn his back on the West and magnify Russia's influence is looking like a trap that his country will find hard to escape. Far from being an equal partner, Russia is evolving into a Chinese tributary.
Viral Moment: China's Post-COVID Planning Horizon Advisory Coronavirus Series Report Launch March 15, 2020 by Emily de la Bruyère and Nathan Picarsic - China's Post-Virus Plan to Destroy America's Economy. Review of Horizon Advisory consultants details Beijing's post-virus strategy Their strategy - already operational - to leverage the pandemic to seize global market share in key industries, further global dependence on Chinese manufacturing, and reverse efforts in the United States and elsewhere to decouple from the People's Republic. "Beijing intends to use the global dislocation and downturn to attract foreign investment, to seize strategic market share and resources - especially those that force dependence, and to proliferate global information systems; to as Chinese sources put it, 'leap-frog' industrially, 'overtake around the corner' strategically, capture the 'commanding heights' globally. Beijing intends to reverse recent U.S. efforts to counteract China's subversive international presence; at the same time to chip away at U.S.-Europe relations. In other words, Beijing will use COVID-19 to accelerate its long-standing, strategic offensive," the Horizon report states.
We're witnessing Beijing's attempt to scrub its culpability for the pandemic from the world's memory. Chinese Communist propagandists declare, "China is owed a thank you for buying the world time" and the New York Times dutifully repeats it. The Horizon Advisory report draws on their writings and statements. On March 12, Song Zhiping, representative to the 15th Party Congress, former party committee secretary, and chairman of the state-owned China National Building Materials Group Corporation declared: China will "turn crisis into opportunity: It will transform and upgrade and strengthen its position in the international industry chain." Chinese enterprises "must not just resume production. They must also boost economic development and exposure to the world in order to speed up the adjustment of the industrial structure, to enhance competitiveness in the international industrial chain, and to build an advance strategic positioning." The CCP Central Committee identifies industries to "seize in the adjustment of the international industrial chain while fighting the epidemic and resuming production." These include 5G construction, urban high-speed rails, urban rail transit, new energy vehicles, big data in infrastructure, artificial intelligence, automobiles, electronics, ships, aviation, power equipment, and machine tools. Han Jian of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and director of the Ministry of Civil Affairs' China Industrial Economics Association put it more succinctly on March 4: "It is possible to turn the crisis into an opportunity - to increase the trust and the dependence of all countries around the world of 'Made in China.'"
The Chengdu municipal government echoed the party line on March 5, calling on enterprises and individuals: to focus on turning crisis into opportunity: Make full use of the important window after the epidemic and focus on the strategic opportunities such as the new technological revolution it will bring about, the new international market demand, and the shortcomings of supply which will need to be filled - Deeply integrate into the global supply chain system in the fields of biomedicine, electronic information, intelligent manufacturing, and agricultural products. China plans to target the very industries hit hardest by the pandemic and use the same predatory practices it has used in the past to subjugate the world's industries. China's State Administration of Science, Technology, and Industry for National Defense lays out the strategy: "Accurately support industries affected by the global spread of the new epidemic, proliferate information technology and other industries overseas to help fight the epidemic, and pave the way for international market expansion after the epidemic is over."
Remember that when you hear "respected voices" such as the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, the National Association of Manufacturers or the Peterson Institute for International Economics call for lifting tariffs on China. Like the New York Times, they are simply swallowing Beijing's sophisticated propaganda
COVID-19 Will Make the US-China Great Power Dynamics More Confrontational the diplomat April 15, 2020 by Monish Tourangbam and Hamsini Hariharan - The pandemic induced bilateral spat between the two most powerful countries in the world comes amid the unfinished business of the trade war. The U.S. and its Indo-Pacific partners are wary of China's ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and have scrambled for a credible response. More recently, the Blue Dot Network has been proposed among American partners, to perhaps offer an alternative through "a multi-stakeholder initiative that will bring governments, the private sector, and civil society together to promote high-quality trusted standards for global infrastructure development." A number of U.S. government documents including the U.S. National Defense strategy, the National Security Strategy and the National Military Strategy have reflected a growing sense of threat perceived from a rising China. China has been called out for engaging in predatory economic practices and along with Russia has been clubbed as near peer competitors challenging American primacy globally and China more particularly in the Indo-Pacific.
When China Rules the World the End of the Western World and the Birth of a New Global Order Full Circle Recorded on November 28, 2013 - Martin Jacques presented his ideas to a select audience of policy makers, policy shapers and entrepreneurs, all with an interest in debating the extent to which China will change us and what the implications of this may be. Martin Jacques is the author of the global best-seller When China Rules the World It was first published in 2009 and has since been translated into fourteen languages and sold over 300,000 copies. The book has been shortlisted for two major literary awards. A second edition of the book, greatly expanded and fully updated, was published in 2012. His TED talk on how to understand China has had 1.3 million views. He is a Senior Fellow at the Department of Politics and International Studies, Cambridge University, and a Visiting Professor at Tsinghua University, Beijing. He is also a non-resident Fellow at the Transatlantic Academy, Washington DC. Key Link: fullcircle
China-Russia alliance on horizon as nuclear arms treaties crumble US riles its rivals with missile moves and calls for Beijing to join New START APRIL 21, 2020 by Dimitri Simes, Contributing writer - MOSCOW -- The U.S. Navy's video had little drama to draw the world's attention away from the coronavirus pandemic. In a clip uploaded to YouTube, a small missile lifts off, orange flames glowing against the black of the Hawaii night. It's over in a mere five seconds. The unremarkable March 19 footage, however, showed another step in a rapidly accelerating arms race. What looked like an ordinary missile was in fact a hypersonic glide vehicle, a newfangled weapon that flies five times the speed of sound and changes direction midflight to evade defenses. The successful American test came as all three powers rush to upgrade their nuclear and conventional arsenals, and as the post-Cold War arms control framework collapses. The last vestige, the 2010 U.S.-Russia treaty known as New START, expires in February 2021, removing limits on the number of strategic nuclear weapons the countries can possess and deploy.
The Donald Trump administration insists any extension should include China, which wants no part of the deal. Now some experts are warning that the end of New START, coupled with U.S. plans to place conventional intermediate-range missiles in Asia, could mark the beginning of a true China-Russia military alliance. "The perception is that the United States is using this New START extension opportunity to impose pressure on China, and such a move is viewed as illegitimate from the Chinese perspective," said Tong Zhao, a fellow at the Carnegie-Tsinghua Center for Global Policy in Beijing. It is true that China has a much smaller nuclear arsenal than either the U.S. or Russia -- fewer than 300 warheads versus around 6,000 for each of its peers, including reserved and retired units, according to the latest counts from the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. China has not been shy about flexing its nuclear muscle. On National Day last October, it paraded the DF-41, an intercontinental ballistic missile that can deliver 10 warheads to the continental U.S., and the DF-17, a hypersonic weapon. China's missile arsenal has grown to include "carrier killers" like the DF-21D and the DF-26, which can target not only aircraft carriers and other ships over 1,000 km away, but also U.S. bases as far away as Guam. Adm. Harry Harris, then the head of the U.S. Pacific Command, told Congress in 2017 that China "controls the largest and most diverse missile force in the world," and that 95% of it "would violate the INF Treaty if China was a signatory."
"Any moves by the United States to deploy its missiles or missile defense systems [in Asia] will fuel ever-greater cooperation between Russia and China". U.S. moves have already nudged Russia and China closer together. In October, Russian President Vladimir Putin revealed Moscow was helping China to develop an early warning system for missile attacks. Only the U.S. and Russia possess such systems. Arbatov warned that if the U.S. does not agree to renew the deal, Russia could go so far as to offer China strategic ballistic missiles and bombers. "Strategic" weapons are considered distinct from "tactical" ones, in that they are designed for mass destruction as part of a broad military strategy rather than for use on a battlefield. Yet last Friday, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo spoke to Lavrov by phone and "emphasized that any future arms control talks must be based on President Trump's vision for a trilateral arms control agreement that includes both Russia and China," a State Department spokesman said. If Cold War history is any guide, Buzhinsky argued, tensions in Asia are likely to get much worse before they get better.
China's Military Advances Under Cover of Coronavirus As worldwide panic over coronavirus dominates the media, China quietly builds up its military. the trumpet April 3, 2020 - While the world is preoccupied with the coronavirus, China is quietly expanding its power around the world. Chinese President Xi Jinping has seized this opportunity to intimidate Taiwan, influence Europe, modernize its military, and entrench itself deeper into the South China Sea. Kurt Campbell and Rush Doshi wrote for Foreign Affairs on March 18: As Washington falters, Beijing is moving quickly and adeptly to take advantage of the opening created by U.S. mistakes, filling the vacuum to position itself as the global leader in pandemic response. It is working to tout its own system, provide material assistance to other countries, and even organize other governments. The sheer chutzpah of China's move is hard to overstate. After all, it was Beijing's own missteps - especially its efforts at first to cover up the severity and spread of the outbreak - that helped create the very crisis now afflicting much of the world. Yet Beijing understands that if it is seen as leading, and Washington is seen as unable or unwilling to do so, this perception could fundamentally alter the United States' position in global politics and the contest for leadership in the 21st century. China is using the coronavirus to make its global ambitions a reality.
On March 29, the South China Morning Post published "With Coronavirus Crisis, China Sees a Chance to Export Its Model of Governance." The article discusses how China could use the pandemic as a means to export its governance by concentration of power "as an alternative to the Western liberal model." The Western press is full of praise for China's authoritarian handling of the crisis (ignoring the negatives of such a totalitarian crackdown), indicating that the West has become more open to this model of governance. This is evident with Serbia's harsh crackdown on those disobeying quarantine rules, the British police use of drones-almost an exact copy of Chinese tactics, and national data and mobile phone tracking.
The White House has received several warnings from leading military and political officials stating that America must be prepared for conflict with China. U.S. Deputy Assistant Defense Secretary for China Chad Sbragia warned that China is currently undergoing "one of the most ambitious military modernization efforts in recent history." He said: "In most of the potential flashpoints in the Indo-Pacific region - the Taiwan Strait, the South China Sea, the Senkaku Islands or the Korean Peninsula - the United States may find itself in a military crisis with China." He warned that the threat was equally as serious as the Cold War and that U.S. preparations must match that. Sbragia said it was no longer a matter of if but when tensions would escalate. One military analyst said that for China, Taiwan is not the goal, it is merely "the template for how it will eventually threaten every other democracy."
In the next few years, there will be a staggering turn in world events! A giant Asian superpower, with a modernized Russia and China at the helm, will dramatically affect the course of history. This emerging power bloc - a conglomerate of peoples which comprise over half of the world's population - will be deeply involved in the tumultuous tide of events that will lead to the conclusion of mankind's 6,000 years of self-rule! The framework for this tumultuous turn of events is being laid right now. Even as the rest of the world panics over coronavirus, don't forget to watch how China is using this crisis to its advantage.
Russian nuclear capabilities in 2017: current status and modernization plans - While it is difficult to make a precise assessment of the size and composition of Russia' nuclear stockpile, experts have been able to provide estimates using New START aggregate data and data from monitoring sources. Analysis from Hans Kristensen, Robert Norris, and Pavel Podvig indicate that, as of 2017, Russia owns a total military stockpile of operational forces of 4,300 nuclear warheads. Of these, 1,960 are deployed on ballistic missiles and at heavy bomber bases, and 500 strategic warheads and 1,850 non-strategic warheads are in storage. The military's Strategic Rocket Forces (SRF) manages ICBMs, the Navy manages sea-based systems, and the Aerospace force manages air and missile defense systems.
Modernization plans and the State Armaments Programme (SAP) - Russia has pursued a major upgrade of its nuclear forces over the past decade. The vast scale of the program seems designed to counter perceived threats from the United States and NATO and maintain strategic stability. The program includes an emphasis on modernizing strategic nuclear and aerospace defense forces. Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu said in 2017 that the military would "continue a massive program of nuclear rearmament, deploying modern ICBMs on land and sea, [and] modernizing the strategic bomber force." The intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) force - As of March 2017, Russia's stockpile includes an estimated 316 intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) carrying 1,076 warheads. Russia is increasing its arsenal of ICBMs equipped with multiple warheads, possibly to account for a smaller ICBM force than that of the United States. By the early 2020s, most mobile Russian ICBMs are expected to carry ballistic missile payloads containing multiple warheads.
The Russian ICBM force includes the Topol (SS-25), Topol-M (SS-27 Mod 2), RS-24 Yars (SS-27 Mod 2), UR-100NUTTH (SS-19), and R-36M2 (SS-18). The latter two are the oldest ICBMs in the arsenal. The R-36M2 is likely to remain in service until 2022, when it will be replaced by a new silo-based liquid-fuel ICBM, called Sarmat. Development of the RS-24 Yars began after the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) expired in 2009. It is a MIRVed variation of the Topol-M. The RS-26 Rubezh (no SS- designation), Sarmat (no RS- or SS- designation), and Barguzin are in development. The Russians are retiring Soviet-era ICBM systems in order to gradually replace older systems with newer systems by the early-to-mid 2020s.42 The new ICBMs are MIRVed, road-mobile, and silo-based - mainly variants of the Topol-M/RS-24 Yars missile. The road-mobile RS-26 Rubezh is planned for deployment in late 2017 and the Sarmat will replace the RS-20V in 2019 or 2020, although it is behind schedule. The Sarmat is expected to be a liquid-fueled missile equipped with as many as 10 MIRVs, and may carry a hypersonic maneuvering warhead. It will be able to attack U.S. targets by multiple trajectories, thereby allowing it to overcome U.S. missile defense systems.
The ballistic missile submarine (SSBN) and submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) force - The Russian force contains 11 operational submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs) across three classes, including the Delta III and Delva IV classes, with a total of 176 missiles carrying 768 warheads. Each submarine can carry 16 SLBMs, for a total of almost 800 warheads. Russian SLBMs include the R-29R (RSM-50, SS-N-18 Stingray), R-29RM Sineva (RSM-54, SS-N-23), RSM-56 Bulava (SS-N-32), and, according to some sources, a version of the RSM-54 known as the R-29RMU2 Lanier. Russia is developing eight Borey-class submarines to replace the ageing Delta III and IV submarines in the mid-2020s, three of which have already been built. The first three are Borey and the additional submarines are Borey-A. The fourth submarine will be introduced in 2019 and the last should join the fleet sometime in 2021. Each will be loaded with sixteen Bulava SLBMs carrying up to six warheads per missile.
The bomber force - Russia maintains a bomber force of approximately 68 aircraft. Only 50 of the deployed nuclear-cable bombers carry assigned nuclear weapons. Of the estimated 68 planes, approximately 25 are TU-95 MS6 (Bear-H6) long-range bombers, 30 are TU-95 MS16 (Bear-H16) long-range bombers, and 13 are Tu-160 (Blackjack) supersonic long-range bombers. They are capable of carrying nuclear air-launched cruise missiles (ALCMs). As strategic heavy bombers they are subject to New START limitations. The Russian air force also operates a multipurpose long-range bombers. They are capable of carrying nuclear air-launched cruise missiles (ALCMs). As strategic heavy bombers they are subject to New START limitations. The Russian air force also operates a multipurpose medium-range supersonic bomber, the Tupolev Tu-22M, which is considered a tactical nuclear delivery platform for various types of cruise missiles. It is not limited by New START. Russia is reportedly replacing its current fleet of Tu-95's, Tu-160's, and Tu-22M's with a new generation of strategic bombers by the early 2020s. These fleets are being upgraded to increase their conventional capabilities. In 2015, the Defense Ministry revealed plans to resume production of the Tu-160M2, an upgrade to the Tu-160, in the mid-2020s. It reportedly signed a $103 million contract to upgrade three of the 10 Tu-160 bombers slated for modernization. Over the next decade, Russia is also developing a new generation bomber called the PAK-DA.
America's Achilles' Heel: An EMP Attack Defending the homeland against existential threats would necessitate building a comprehensive national missile-defense system.June 10, 2018 by David T. Pyne (David T. Pyne has a M.A. in National Security Studies from Georgetown University and currently serves as the Utah Director for the EMP Task Force for National and Homeland Security, an official Congressional Advisory Board, and as a member of the Secure the Grid Coalition.) - America stands as an example to the world and continues to serve as the great bastion of freedom and hope to hundreds of millions of innocent people who live under communist and Islamist tyranny and oppression, but America can only retain this status if Congress acts now to defend against the existential threat of nuclear and EMP attack. This past year, the United States has witnessed a greatly increased threat from North Korea. U.S. intelligence has now confirmed that North Korea not only possesses up to sixty nuclear warheads, but it has developed the miniaturization technology required to mount them atop a number of different types of intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), which it has tested over the past year.
Dr. Peter Pry, who served as chief of staff to the Commission to Assess the Threat to the United States from Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) Attack, which Congress unwisely chose to disband late last year, currently serves as Executive Director of the EMP Task Force on National and Homeland Security. He told Congress that there is the possibility that Pyongyang has deployed two "super EMP" satellites in low-earth orbit over the continental United States which, if detonated over the country without warning, could kill up to 290 million Americans within a year. Pry also estimates that Russia currently possesses at least three times more nuclear weapons than the United States. In addition, communist China recently admitted having built three thousand miles worth of underground tunnels where it may be concealing hundreds of mobile ICBMs with 1,600-1,800 nuclear warheads, according to Col. Gen. Viktor Yesin, a former commander of Russia's Strategic Rocket Forces. That number is considerably more than the number that the United States currently has deployed.
Thankfully, Utah Republican Rep. Chris Stewart, who previously co-sponsored the SHIELD Act, is leading the way with his planned introduction of legislation that, if passed, would serve to protect America's electrical power grid from catastrophic EMP attack and potentially save the lives of tens of millions of U.S. citizens in the unfortunate event such an attack actually materialized. A similar bill known as the GRID Act was approved by the House of Representatives in June 2010 with unanimous bipartisan support but which, regrettably, was never considered by the U.S. Senate. Defending the homeland against such existential threats would necessitate building a comprehensive national missile-defense system. Deterring such threats would also entail rebuilding our strategic nuclear arsenal, which was allowed to decay under President Trump's two immediate predecessors, but which he has signaled a desire to modernize.
The best way to strengthen and expand America's nuclear deterrent in the near term would be to increase the operations tempo of the Ohio-class nuclear ballistic missile submarine fleet from four of fourteen being at sea at any given time to ten. This would ensure that over two-thirds of our nuclear missile submarine fleet could not be destroyed in their ports in a hypothetical pre-emptive nuclear first strike by America's enemies, providing the United States with a much more credible second strike retaliatory capability 2.5 times larger. Another important step President Trump could take would be to renounce dangerously unverifiable New START Treaty limitations. This is necessary in view of multiple reports of Russian treaty violations and to allow America to upload both it's ICBM's and SLBM's with additional strategic nuclear warheads to their maximum payload capacity. Doing so would not necessarily entail any significant increases in the U.S. defense budget. President Trump ran on extricating America's brave servicemen and servicewomen from unnecessary foreign wars and has proposed withdrawing our troops from Syria, which could help fund such measures. In addition, Congress could vote to cut overly expensive conventional weapons programs and reduce our military bases and force structure somewhat to pay for strategic programs which will, alone, safeguard America's survival. America stands as an example to the world and continues to serve as the great bastion of freedom and hope to hundreds of millions of innocent people who live under communist and Islamist tyranny and oppression, but America can only retain this status if Congress acts now to defend against the existential threat of nuclear and EMP attack.
The Kill Chain Defending America in the Future of High-Tech Warfare by Christian Brose April, 2020 - For generations of Americans, our country has been the worlds dominant military power. How the US military fights, and the systems and weapons that it fights with, have been uncontested. That old reality, however, is rapidly deteriorating. America's traditional sources of power are eroding amid the emergence of new technologies and the growing military threat posed by rivals such as China. America is at grave risk of losing a future war. As Christian Brose reveals in this urgent wake-up call, the future will be defined by artificial intelligence, autonomous systems, and other emerging technologies that are revolutionizing global industries and are now poised to overturn the model of American defense. This fascinating, if disturbing, book confronts the existential risks on the horizon, charting a way for America's military to adapt and succeed with new thinking as well as new technology. America must build a battle network of systems that enables people to rapidly understand threats, make decisions, and take military actions, the process known as "the kill chain." Examining threats from China, Russia, and elsewhere, The Kill Chain offers hope and, ultimately, insights on how America can apply advanced technologies to prevent war, deter aggression, and maintain peace. "The Kill Chain is a powerful and thoughtful challenge to much of the conventional wisdom about national defense. It also offers a compelling vision for how the US military can get beyond business as usual to compete and win in this new era of great power competition. Brose's book should be read by every American." - Senator Tom Cotton (R-AR)
DoD needs to demystify hypersonic weapons technology spacenews March 17, 2020 by Nicholas Nelson - Hypersonic weapons are drawing more media attention as China and Russia roll out new systems. These weapons, once deployed, will pose a critical threat to the United States at home and abroad. Although this is an important national security issue, it is not one that is readily explained to non-expert audiences. Hypersonic capabilities have the potential to rewrite the balance of power across land, sea, air and space. We need to demystify the technology to ensure the nation makes the necessary investments to secure U.S. leadership in hypersonics over the next decade. This is key in building a consensus around the implications of the rise of hypersonic weapons. Gen. David Berger, commandant of the Marine Corps put it this "The people we have to convince in Congress, you can't talk over their head, you have to talk in plain language. No acronyms, no complications, straight-forward." The simple way to explain hypersonic systems is that they're about speed. They can travel faster than one mile per second, with speeds ranging from five times the speed of sound or Mach 5, up to at least 10 times the speed of sound, or Mach 10. (Russia claims it's operational S-96 reaches speeds of 20 X the speed of sound.) For comparison, a typical cruise missile such as the Tomahawk travels at 550 miles per hour, or just over Mach 0.5, whereas the supersonic Concorde traveled at Mach 2.
Despite the recent interest, its important to note that hypersonic technology is not new. The first hypersonic test occurred at White Sands, New Mexico, in 1949 and was followed by tests of intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) during the late 1950s and 1960s, which regularly achieved hypersonic speed. Currently, hypersonic weapons fall into one of two primary categories: hypersonic cruise missiles (HCM) and hypersonic glide vehicles (HGV). HCMs function as ultrafast, self-propelled cruise missiles. Conversely, HGVs are ground launched by a rocket, deploy at high-altitudes, and finally glide to strike targets. From a military perspective, hypersonic weapons are game-changing due to their high speed, range, greater survivability, and unpredictability. These weapons can carry conventional or, in some cases, nuclear warheads. When compared to traditional ICBMs and cruise missiles, hypersonics fly faster than ICBMs and have the maneuverability of a cruise missile, as well as additional deception capabilities. If used by adversaries, they would pose a serious threat to U.S. assets globally, from ships at sea to overseas bases, as well as potential decapitation strikes on national leaders or key nodes. "We don't have any defense that could deny the employment of such a weapon against us," said Gen. John Hyten, vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and former commander of U.S. Strategic Command.
More recently, HGVs specifically, have overcome long-standing technology hurdles associated with reentry and structural integrity. And the forthcoming generation of these hypersonic weapons will drastically shorten decision- and reaction-times at the tactical and strategic levels. Because next-generation hypersonics don't need to travel a straight line to their targets, they are harder to shoot down. It's also harder to tell who fired them, which makes it difficult to deter a hypersonic attack or retaliate against one. This increases the risk of miscalculation and unintended escalation. From a defensive perspective, traditional antimissile and other air defense measures are of limited effectiveness against hypersonic vehicles and have not kept pace with the evolution of offensive weapons. "Our adversaries have taken advantage of what I have referred to as a holiday for the United States," said Mike Griffin, undersecretary of defense for research and engineering. Over this time frame, Russia and China have focused on developing hypersonic weapons, while the U.S. has been preoccupied by counterterrorism and counterinsurgency operations. This has allowed Russia and China to take the lead and potentially deploy weapons that threaten assets such as critical infrastructure, military bases and capital ships.
From a global perspective, the United States, Russia and China remain the global leaders, followed closely by India, which notably has a joint venture on a hypersonic weapon with Russia. Beyond these four nations, several U.S. allies are individually, or in cooperation with one another, pursuing hypersonic offensive and defensive capabilities, including Australia, France, Germany, Israel and the United Kingdom. Within the U.S., the market is still largely concentrated on offensive weapons and countermeasures. Annual unclassified defense spending on hypersonic weapons is over $2.6 billion in fiscal year 2020 - including $157.4 million for hypersonic defense programs. Spending is expected to grow to $5 billion by 2025. Further, the international hypersonic market is predicted to grow at an annual rate of more than 7 percent over the next several years. In this environment, the Department of Defense is focused on building an offensive arsenal to act as a deterrent until a robust hypersonic defense strategy can be advanced and implemented. (This op-ed originally appeared in the Dec. 11, 2019 issue of SpaceNews magazine.)
Will This Pandemic Finally Mark the End of the US Carrier Fleet? the saker April 16, 2020 - Frankly, I have never considered USN carrier strike groups as "Cold War capable" element of the US Navy. Yes, in theory, there was the notion of forward deploying these carriers to "bring the war to the Soviets" (on the Kola Peninsula) before they could flush their subs and aircraft through the GUIK gap and into the Atlantic. As for "bringing the war to the Soviets", the truth is that had it ever come to a real war, the US carriers would have been kept far away from the formidable Soviet cruise missile capability (delivered simultaneously by aircraft, surface ships and submarines) for a very simple reason: every time such an attack was modeled a sufficient number of Soviet missiles successfully passed through the protective cordon around the carrier and successfully hit it with devastating results (while sinking a carrier is not that easy, damaging it and making it inoperable does not take that many missile hits). And that was long before hypersonic missiles like the Kinzhal or the Zircon! Truly, as an an instrument to deter or defeat the Soviets the USN strike groups were already obsolete in the 1980s, that is long before the the Russians deployed their hypersonic missiles which, as my friend Andrey Martyanov explained in his books (see here) basically made the entire US surface fleet obsolete not only to fight Russia, but also to fight any country which possesses such missiles. Such countries already include India and China, but there will be many more soon, probably including Iran!
The Coronavirus Is Raising the Likelihood of Great-Power Conflict by Barry Pavel Director, Atlantic Council's Scowcroft Center June 1, 2020 - Over the last few weeks, Chinese and American military operations in the western Pacific have been increasing in intensity and show little signs of abating. U.S. armed forces are finally moving - in a big way - to restore deterrence against China in the western Pacific Ocean. News of a substantial proportion of the Navy's 11 aircraft carriers, along with submarines from the Pacific fleet, surging to the western Pacific Ocean, should go far toward countering any misperceptions by the Chinese military that U.S. force readiness is diminished due to the pandemic. Indeed, Chinese actions over the last month and a half have been particularly aggressive, and the PLA Navy's recent military operations follow years of other coercive measures that featured permanent Chinese military facilities being built on islands in disputed international waters and a wide range of other aggressive activities against regional navies.
A World War Could Break Out in the Arctic American military training exercises in northern Norway are escalating tensions with Russia February 11, 2020 by Michael T. Klare - In early March, an estimated 7,500 American combat troops will travel to Norway to join thousands of soldiers from other NATO countries in a massive mock battle with imagined invading forces from Russia. In this futuristic simulated engagement - it goes by the name of Exercise Cold Response 2020 - allied forces will "conduct multinational joint exercises with a high-intensity combat scenario in demanding winter conditions," or so claims the Norwegian military anyway. At first glance, this may look like any other NATO training exercise, but think again. There's nothing ordinary about Cold Response 2020. As a start, it's being staged above the Arctic Circle, far from any previous traditional NATO battlefield, and it raises to a new level the possibility of a great-power conflict that might end in a nuclear exchange and mutual annihilation. Welcome, in other words, to World War III's newest battlefield.
Ever since the Soviets acquired nuclear weapons of their own in 1949, strategists have wondered how and where an all-out nuclear war - World War III - would break out. At one time, that incendiary scenario was believed most likely to involve a clash over the divided city of Berlin or along the East-West border in Germany. After the Cold War, however, fears of such a deadly encounter evaporated and few gave much thought to such possibilities. Looking forward today, however, the prospect of a catastrophic World War III is again becoming all too imaginable and this time, it appears, an incident in the Arctic could prove the spark for Armageddon. [Michael T. Klare, The Nation's defense correspondent, is professor emeritus of peace and world-security studies at Hampshire College and senior visiting fellow at the Arms Control Association in Washington, DC. Most recently, he is the author of All Hell Breaking Loose The Pentagon's Perspective on Climate Change.]
Does China Outspend US on Defense? Can We Afford an Arms Race with the World's Biggest Economy? unz review February 28, 2020 by Godfree Roberts - In 2015 RAND reported, "China can now hold the US Navy's surface fleet at risk at significant ranges from the mainland". Two years later the Pentagon calculated, The PLAN (China's is the largest navy in Asia', with more than 300 surface ships, submarines, amphibious and patrol craft." In 2018, the US Navy's Indo-Pacific Commander, Adm. Philip Davidson 1, told the Senate, "There is no guarantee that the United States would win a future conflict with China". By next summer, says the Navy, the PLAN will have 342 deployable warships, far more than the USN can support in the area. PPP figures are only an average of all prices and fail to reflect the fact that Chinese defense dollars buy almost fifty-percent more than American defense dollars. In other words, China's defense spending has already surpassed ours by a considerable margin. Here's the reasoning: Beijing runs the most cost-effective government on earth. They know how to get value for money and, in every budget category, is a model of thrift: China outspends us by 300% on R&D. As with the US, much leading-edge research is military in nature but Beijing ensures that all of its discoveries are quickly exploited by the PLA. Beijing owns the defense contractors so saves on lobbying, bribes, profit-taking, rent-seeking, waste, redundancy, overpaid boards and executives, politically-driven decisions, and more. China is free to make consistently rational decisions about defense acquisitions. Demobilize a million troops? Done. Shift resources to the Rocket Force? Done. Recruit the entire Merchant Marine? Done. Beijing's Military-Civil Fusion is a force multiplier that saves a bundle. China has three sea forces, each a subcomponent of its Armed Forces: the PLA Navy (PLAN), China Coast Guard (CCG), and the People's Armed Forces Maritime Militia (PAFMM). Each has the world's most ships in its category and all operate in concert under unified command and control. The first line of defense, the Maritime Militia,[3a] has 180,000 ocean-going fishing boats and four thousand merchant marine freighters - some towing passive sonar detectors. Crewed by a million experienced sailors, they transmit detailed information about every warship on the world's oceans twenty-four hours a day. Shore bases fuse their reports with automated transmissions from Beidou positioning, navigation and timing satellites and provide real time data to reporting specialists, xinxiyuan, trained in target information collection and identification, who operate 'vessel management platforms' that collate, format and forward actionable information up the PLAN command chain. Shoreside, eight million coastal reservists train constantly in seamanship, emergency ship repairs, anti-air missile defense, light weapons and naval sabotage.
Our media, on the rare occasions when they reveal some truth about China, delay doing so for five to ten years. Ten years ago, for example, Huawei was gigantic, innovative and leading the race to 5G but we didn't get the memo until twelve months ago. Today the media insist that China's economy is 'the second-largest on earth' when even the CIA admits that it's thirty percent bigger than ours. This means, inter alia, that China's defense budget is thirty percent bigger than we imagine and, since her economy grows three times faster than ours, its defense spending will equal ours eight years hence, in 2028, when she will have twice as many warships, aircraft and missiles as the US, all newer and of equal or better quality. But PPP figures are only an average of all prices and fail to reflect the fact that Chinese defense dollars buy almost fifty-percent more than American defense dollars. In other words, China's defense spending has already surpassed ours by a considerable margin. Here's the reasoning: Beijing runs the most cost-effective government on earth. They know how to get value for money and, in every budget category, is a model of thrift: China outspends us by 300% on R&D. As with the US, much leading-edge research is military in nature but Beijing ensures that all of its discoveries are quickly exploited by the PLA. Beijing owns the defense contractors so saves on lobbying, bribes, profit-taking, rent-seeking, waste, redundancy, overpaid boards and executives, politically-driven decisions, and more. China is free to make consistently rational decisions about defense acquisitions. Demobilize a million troops? Done. Shift resources to the Rocket Force? Done. Recruit the entire Merchant Marine? Done.
Beijing's Military-Civil Fusion is a force multiplier that saves a bundle. China has three sea forces, each a subcomponent of its Armed Forces: the PLA Navy (PLAN), China Coast Guard (CCG), and the People's Armed Forces Maritime Militia (PAFMM). Each has the world's most ships in its category and all operate in concert under unified command and control. The first line of defense, the Maritime Militia, has 180,000 ocean-going fishing boats and four thousand merchant marine freighters - some towing passive sonar detectors. Crewed by a million experienced sailors, they transmit detailed information about every warship on the world's oceans twenty-four hours a day. Shore bases fuse their reports with automated transmissions from Beidou positioning, navigation and timing satellites and provide real time data to reporting specialists, xinxiyuan, trained in target information collection and identification, who operate 'vessel management platforms' that collate, format and forward actionable information up the PLAN command chain. Shoreside, eight million coastal reservists train constantly in seamanship, emergency ship repairs, anti-air missile defense, light weapons and naval sabotage. Technology contributes to cost-effectiveness and capability enhancement: China, the world leader in chemistry, math, computer science, and engineering, has applied its chemistry expertise to propellants and explosives. All its missiles, from air-to-air to ICBMs, outrange ours by fifty- to one-hundred percent and their warheads doubtless pack a superior punch. Commonality Saves Billions. The fabled DF-21D 'Carrier Killer' is a repurposed IRBM the PLAN uses to loft many of the missiles footnoted below and, by mass producing them, reduces their cost to a fraction of ours while affording a mind-numbing variety.
Mass Produced Warships: The PLAN launched seventeen warships in 2017 and nineteen last year, using a common approach to manufacturing while progressively cutting costs and improving each unit - sometimes based on radioed feedback from trialling ships. Their new submarine factory, the largest such facility on earth, produces six subs simultaneously, reducing construction costs to a fraction of ours. If the Chinese can build nuclear power plants for 35% of our cost, which they do, they can certainly produce cruisers like the Type 55, the most powerful surface combatant afloat, for half the cost of our Ticonderoga class. The PLAN spends solely for defense. Defense. In 2001, anti-American terrorists with global reach were found in only one or two countries. Today we are fighting terrorists in eighty nations at a cost of two-thirds of the discretionary budget and leaving little for productive investment - or even innovative weapon systems. The GWOT has cost $6.4 trillion, including veterans' care and we are still garrisoning Germany and Japan, Korea, Afghanistan, and Iraq. At our insistence, China built exactly one supply base, at Djibouti, which also anchors its massive (compared to our non-existent) development program for that country while we man and supply foreign bases in eight hundred locations. The PLARF can destroy every American city in 48 minutes. Even if China were to knock out all our foreign bases, were we to strike their territory China could (and, on past form, would) strike American mainland targets with equal ease. Talk about asymmetrical warfare! It would be surprising if China did not pursue outright military dominance, given our recent behavior.
The Pandemic Could Tighten China's Grip on Eurasia Despite border closures, Russia and others may be pushed even closer to Beijing foreignpolicy April 23, 2020 by Alexander Gabuev - The first phase of the coronavirus outbreak delivered a blow to Russian President Vladimir Putin's vision of a China-Russia quasi-alliance. Following a schism in the Kremlin's relations with the United States, Putin has touted ties to Beijing as an antidote to Western sanctions. In October 2019, the Russian president admitted that Moscow was helping Beijing to create a missile attack early warning system and characterized Sino-Russian ties as "an allied relationship in the full sense of a multifaceted strategic partnership."
The US, China and Asia after the pandemic more, not less, tension brookings.edu April 1, 2020 by Ryan Hass and Kevin Dong - This piece originally appeared in the East Asia Forum. Editor's Note: The world's two most powerful countries are mired in a narrative war over the causes of the COVID-19 pandemic and the apportionment of blame for the global destruction it is causing, writes Ryan Hass and Kevin Dong. These arguments are likely to lead to negative-sum outcomes for the United States and China and could lead to heightened tensions across the region.
Few events of the past century have emphasized the need for global and regional leadership as clearly as the spread of COVID-19. This has shown immunity to all barriers - national, cultural, ideological, and individual. It has attacked the rich as well as the poor, the strong and the weak. It has made virtually every person on the planet feel vulnerable. Traditionally in such circumstances, the United States would step forward to offer leadership, using its unique convening power and its unmatched economic, political and military might to mobilize resources and spur international efforts in a common direction. Such was the case following the Southeast Asian tsunami, the global financial crisis and the outbreak of Ebola in East Africa. The United States has generally viewed it as a positive-sum game to navigate these global challenges with China. That is no longer the case. Now, many American policymakers view coordination with China on COVID-19 response as a self-harming exercise in a zero-sum competition for global leadership. Such efforts, in their view, confer legitimacy on a Chinese leadership that is unworthy of it. Top Chinese officials have matched their US counterparts in their myopia, spreading fringe conspiracy theories about the virus originating outside of China and arguing that Beijing's response to the virus outbreak demonstrates the superiority of its governance system. Such efforts advertise China's insecurities and weaknesses more than its strengths. They serve as reminders of China's lethally botched initial response to the outbreak of the virus in Wuhan. Recognizing this reputational risk, Chinese propagandists are feverishly attempting to rewrite the COVID-19 narrative to place their leaders in a favorable light.
As a consequence, the world's two most powerful countries are mired in a narrative war over the causes of the pandemic and the apportionment of blame for the global destruction it is causing. These arguments are likely to lead to negative-sum outcomes for the United States and China. The more the pandemic spreads and devastates economies, the more that both countries will suffer. This downward spiral shows few signs of abating. Top US officials believe they have a moral imperative to shine a spotlight on the link between China's negligent initial response in Wuhan and the global spread of the virus. The more global the destruction COVID-19 unleashes, the stronger the conviction will become for these officials that China's authoritarian governance system must be challenged. There will also be ongoing efforts to advance initiatives such as the US State Departments Blue Dot Network, a new multi-stakeholder approach for elevating the quality, transparency and sustainability of infrastructure projects. There will be a push to consolidate the US-Japan-Australia-ndia quadrilateral grouping and to strengthen US military posture in Asia. Top US officials such as Secretary Pompeo and Secretary of Defense Mark Esper likely will continue their high tempo of travel to the region. But these initiatives may be eclipsed by the Trump administration's focus on holding the Chinese leadership accountable for its initial response to the virus outbreak.
Covid-19 is deadlier than the world thinks it to be. It will start Cold War 2.0 Covid-19 is going to change the world order. It will affect the UN, and how it is run, especially considering how China used the WHO to mask its lies. theprint April16, 2020 by Yusuf T. Unjhawala - The Iron Curtain 2.0 is likely to descend again on the world grappling with the coronavirus pandemic. One of the leading protagonists is the same as the last time, the United States of America. The other, once again, a communist country, China. The Covid-19 outbreak is going to serve as a casus belli for Cold War 2.0 that was building up in the last few years since Xi Jinping came to power in China in 2013 and has since become its most powerful leader since Mao.
The consequences of the Covid-19 are going to be manifold. It is going to change the world order significantly. It might also affect the United Nations, and how it is run, especially considering how China used the World Health Organization (WHO) to mask its lies and save its image and prevented a discussion on the pandemic while it held the chair of the Security Council. The US withdrew from the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization in 2017 and from the United Nations Human Rights Council in 2018. Trump has already spoken about stopping funding to the WHO. The risk of breakdown of multilateral organisations, including the World Trade Organisation, are real. The global supply chains are going to see a shift away from China. There could be claims of compensation from countries around the world which are facing massive economic losses. A report calculated that just the G7 countries could claim over $4 trillion. China is not expected to pay any compensation if any claims are filed against it. That will trigger countermeasures from the claimants which could be significant including the possibility of an armed conflict.
There is geopolitics over any natural or manmade disaster. Covid-19 is no different. China, where the virus originated, suppressed information and failed to inform the world about it until it was too late. Using its authoritarian ways, it conducted extensive surveillance including use of artificial intelligence and facial recognition to track its citizens and then used methods like welding people in their homes to counter the pandemic. China sees the crisis as its moment to project its governance model. China's propaganda led by its foreign ministry, its diplomats around the world and state-controlled media started to promote its authoritarian model of governance as superior over the democratic system which it says has failed. They are using English language and free world platforms like twitter, platforms China denies its own citizens. China has also used its control over manufacturing of medical supplies to further its geopolitical aims. Its media suggested that China will not supply masks to countries that don't allow Huawei for 5G. Led by the foreign ministry spokesman Lijian Zhao, China started to deflect blame for the origin of the virus to the US Army which led to Trump retaliating by calling Covid-19 the Chinese Virus.
The reactions have been swift and are ongoing. It is not just the US that has blamed China for the pandemic, other countries have also done so in one form or the other. US secretary of state Mike Pompeo has repeatedly spoken out against authoritarianism. Western countries are looking to decouple from China in its dependence for manufactured goods and secure its supply chain. The Japanese government has even allocated $2.2 billion for its companies to move out of China. American companies which had started moving out of China in the aftermath of the trade war are expected to speed up their exit. China also recognises this threat and has warned against it. The US has led two rounds of meetings of the countries in the Indo-Pacific - the Quad plus South Korea, New Zealand and Vietnam. The purpose as reported by the Times of India is exploring ways to facilitate trade, sharing technologies and movement of people. And not just to deal with the ongoing crisis, but also going forward to see how to put the global economies back on their feet. And while the war of words has been on, President Trump on 27 March signed into law an act that requires the US to support Taiwan diplomatically around the world and take actions against countries that undermine Taiwan's security and prosperity provoking an angry response from China.
After becoming the President, Xi Jinping announced the Belt and Road Initiative with strategic intent. In 2015, he announced the Made in China 2025 to make the country a manufacturing powerhouse through technology and innovation, particularly in ten core areas. His vision is to make China a global military and economic superpower by the time the Chinese Communist Party celebrates its 100 year rule in 2049, displacing the US. China has also signalled its intentions to dominate the region - claiming the entire South China Sea (SCS) and put it as part of its expanded core non-negotiable interests. It has militarised the disputed islands in the SCS, claims Japanese island of Senkaku and in 2017, it triggered a 72-day standoff with India over Doklam. The Chinese aggression was being contested. The US, under President Donald Trump declared China as its strategic competitor in its National Security Strategy released in 2017. Trump's trade war with China was never just a trade war but a part of the overall competition between the two countries and their battle for supremacy.
The US banned Huawei, China's leading communications technology company, citing it as a security threat, pressuring its allies to do the same for their 5G networks. In August last year, Trump asked American companies to quit China. The Quad consisting of the US, Japan, Australia and India which was shelved after its first iteration in 2007, was revived in 2017. The US has continued to conduct freedom of navigation operations in SCS despite Chinese protests and some aggressive behaviour by the Chinese navy against US navy warships. The Iron Curtain 2.0 will not have defined borders like it had in its first avatar. China doesn't have a significant number of allies or controls other states like the Soviets did. The BRI is still in the works for that. China perhaps mistimed its breakout. But the Iron Curtain 2.0 will retain the similarity of its earlier avatar. The battle is going to be for attaining technological, economic and ideological supremacy with democratic countries, led by the US on one side and China on the other with its authoritarian model and its growing technological prowess. There could be an alliance of democracies that will promote rule of law, open and transparent systems and economic cooperation within them which will incentivise democracies around the world and sanction authoritarianism. The author is editor of Defense Forum India. He is a commentator on defense and strategic affairs. He tweets @YusufDFI. Views are personal.
Pre-emptive nuclear strike Wikipedia - [citation needed for entire essay] In nuclear strategy, a first strike is a preemptive surprise attack employing overwhelming force. First strike capability is a country's ability to defeat another nuclear power by destroying its arsenal to the point where the attacking country can survive the weakened retaliation while the opposing side is left unable to continue war. The preferred methodology is to attack the opponent's strategic nuclear weapon facilities (missile silos, submarine bases, bomber airfields), command and control sites, and storage depots first. The strategy is called counterforce.
During the Cold War period, both superpowers, NATO and the Eastern Bloc, built massive nuclear arsenals, aimed, to a large extent, at each other. However, they were never used, as after a time, leaders on both sides of the Iron Curtain realized that global thermonuclear war would not be in either power's interest, as it would probably lead to the destruction of both sides, and possibly nuclear winter or other extinction level events. Therefore, at times, both sides refrained from deploying systems capable of unanswerable nuclear strikes against either side. However, in both blocs, there were interests that benefited from the development and maintenance of first-strike weapons systems: what U.S. President Dwight Eisenhower termed the military-industrial complex; these forces encouraged the constant development of weapons systems of greater accuracy, power, and destruction. In addition, each side doubted the other side's commitment to not deploy first-strike weapons, or even in the event of their deployment, to not strike first. Some first-strike weapons were deployed; however like most nuclear weapons, they were never used.
Of the nuclear powers, only the People's Republic of China and India have declarative, unqualified, unconditional no-first-use policies. In 1982, at a special session of the General Assembly of United Nations, the USSR pledged not to use nuclear weapons first, regardless of whether its opponents possessed nuclear weapons or not. This pledge was later abandoned by post-Soviet Russia to compensate the overwhelming conventional weapon superiority enjoyed by NATO. The United States has a partial, qualified no-first-use policy, stating that they will not use nuclear weapons against states that do not possess nuclear weapons or other weapons of mass destruction. Large-scale missile defense systems are not first-strike weapons, but certain critics[who?] view them as first-strike enabling weapons. U.S. President Ronald Reagan's proposed Strategic Defense Initiative, if it had ever been deployed (and proven successful), would have undermined the fundamental premise of mutual assured destruction (the inevitable outcome of equal and unacceptable destruction for both sides in the event of nuclear war), removing the incentive for the US not to strike first. These proposed defense systems, intended to lessen the risk of devastating nuclear war, would lead to it, according to these critics. A Preemptive strike refers to a surprise attack launched with the stated intention of countering an anticipated enemy offensive.
Preemptive war Wikipedia - (Not to be confused with preventive war, namely an anticipatory war in the face of a less immediate threat.) - A preemptive war is a war that is commenced in an attempt to repel or defeat a perceived imminent offensive or invasion, or to gain a strategic advantage in an impending (allegedly unavoidable) war shortly before that attack materializes. It is a war that preemptively 'breaks the peace'.
The term 'preemptive war' is sometimes confused with the term 'preventive war'. The difference is that a preventive war is launched to destroy the potential threat of the targeted party, when an attack by that party is not imminent or known to be planned. A preemptive war is launched in anticipation of immediate aggression by another party. Most contemporary scholarship equates preventive war with aggression, and therefore argues that it is illegitimate. The waging of a preemptive war has less stigma attached than does the waging of a preventive war. The initiation of armed conflict: that is being the first to 'break the peace' when no 'armed attack' has yet occurred, is not permitted by the UN Charter, unless authorized by the UN Security Council as an enforcement action. Some authors have claimed that when a presumed adversary first appears to be beginning confirmable preparations for a possible future attack, but has not yet actually attacked, that the attack has in fact 'already begun', however this opinion has not been upheld by the UN.
The International Law of Anticipatory Self-Defense and U.S. Options in North Korea August 8, 2017 by Alex Potcovaru - This post reviews several examples of pre-attack strikes taken by a variety of states asserting self-defense; examining the context, rationale and international response. These cases might offer insights into an impending decision on the North Korean question. What kinds of strikes qualify as self-defense? In her book chapter "Taming the Doctrine of Preemption" (contained in the "Oxford Handbook on the Use of Force in International Law"), University of Virginia Law scholar and Lawfare contributor Ashley Deeks provides helpful definitions of the three terms primarily used by scholars to discuss types of pre-attack self-defense: anticipatory, preemptive and preventive. Under the U.N. Charter, the Security Council has the sole ability to authorize the use of force against a state. If a state fails to receive this authorization but makes a pre-strike attack regardless, claims of self-defense will face much closer scrutiny.
The Future of Life Institute Technology is giving life the potential to flourish like never before, or to self-destruct. FLI is a non-profit organization aiming to tip the balance toward "flourish" through high-impact projects and education, focusing on existential risk, nuclear weapons, AI, biotech. Mission: To catalyze and support research and initiatives for safeguarding life and developing optimistic visions of the future, including positive ways for humanity to steer its own course considering new technologies and challenges. The Man Who Saved the World - To celebrate that today is not the 35th anniversary of World War III, Stanislav Petrov, the man who helped avert an all-out nuclear exchange between Russia and the U.S. on September 26 1983 was honored in New York with the $50,000 Future of Life Award at a ceremony at the Museum of Mathematics in New York.
Although the U.N. General Assembly, just blocks away, heard politicians highlight the nuclear threat from North Korea's small nuclear arsenal, none mentioned the greater threat from the many thousands of nuclear weapons in the United States and Russian arsenals that have nearly been unleashed by mistake dozens of times in the past in a seemingly never-ending series of mishaps and misunderstandings. One of the closest calls occurred thirty-five years ago, on September 26, 1983, when Stanislav Petrov chose to ignore the Soviet early-warning detection system that had erroneously indicated five incoming American nuclear missiles. With his decision to ignore algorithms and instead follow his gut instinct, Petrov helped prevent an all-out US-Russian nuclear war, as detailed in the documentary film The Man Who Saved the World, released in 2014. See also a similar incident of Avoiding WW III Russian sub commander decision not to launch a nuclear torpedeo during the Cuban Missle Crises.
China Would Destroy U.S. Cities In A Nuclear War Make no mistake: no one wins in a nuclear war December 30, 2019 by Lyle J. Goldstein - When one reads enough Chinese naval literature, diagrams of multi-axial cruise missile saturation attacks against aircraft carrier groups may begin to seem normal. However, one particular graphic from the October 2015 issue (p. 32) of the naval journal Naval & Merchant Ships - stands out as both unusual and singularly disturbing. It purports to map the impact of a Chinese intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) strike by twenty nuclear-armed rockets against the United States. Targets include the biggest cities on the East and West Coasts, as well as in the Midwest, as one would expect. Giant radiation plumes cover much of the country and the estimate in the caption holds that the strike "would yield perhaps 50 million people killed". The map below that graphic on the same page illustrates the optimal aim point for a hit on New York City with a "blast wave" that vaporizes all of Manhattan and well beyond.
That makes the North Korean "threat" look fairly insignificant by comparison, doesn't it? But what's really disturbing is that the scenario described above envisions a strike by China's largely antiquated DF-5 first generation ICBM. In other words, the illustration is perhaps a decade or more out of date. As China has deployed first the road-mobile DF-31, then DF-31A and now JL-2 (a submarine-launched nuclear weapon), China's nuclear strategy has moved from "assured retaliation" to what one may term "completely assured retaliation."
Indeed, the actual theme of the article featuring those graphics concerns recent reports regarding testing of the DF-41 mobile ICBM. The author of that article, who is careful to note that his views do not represent those of the publication, observes that when a Chinese Defense Ministry spokesperson was queried about the test on August 6, 2015, the spokesperson "did not deny that the DF-41 exists". The author also cites U.S. intelligence reports, concluding that four tests have now been conducted, including one that demonstrates multiple-reentry vehicle (MIRV) technology. The author estimates that DF-41 will finally provide China with the capability to launch missiles from north central China and hit all targets in the U.S. (except Florida). With the goal of better understanding the rapidly evolving strategic nuclear balance between China and the U.S. and its significance, this Dragon Eye surveys some recent Mandarin-language writings on the subject of Chinese nuclear forces.
Comment: Brian Baudin - 3 months ago The real danger is in the future. 1. China is now in preparations to build 6 aircraft carriers to be commissioned by 2035. Really NOT to far away, when you think about 15 years. We already know how they will weld their power in watching how they are handling the contested islands and Taiwan - through aggression NOT compromise. If they weren't concerned about the possibility of facing off against the USA, they would have already invaded and enslaved Tiawan. We can expect this because even though their economy is slowing, but GDP is still growing at 6.4% annually. We are straining to increase ours to 3%, meaning they are still growing over twice as fast as we are. They want to replace us, and destroy us if necessary, to become the worlds leading power in ALL aspects of the word. If we keep financing their economy by allowing the trade deficit to continue, that's what WILL happen. Make no mistake, the US could Kill 99% of the Chinese population, and make their homeland uninhabitable for the next 1000 years. The US has enough nukes to make EVERY major city in China glow in the dark!
Is China about to abandon its 'no first use' nuclear weapons policy? scmp 7 Feb, 2019 by Minnie Chan and Kristin Huang - The growing US-China naval arms race is putting pressure on Beijing to reconsider its long-standing nuclear policy, analysts say. But one source said that unlike the US, China is incapable of launching a pre-emptive strike and so has little choice but to retain "no first use" policy. China might come under pressure to reconsider its long-standing "no first use" nuclear policy as it engages in a maritime arms race with the United States, analysts have warned. Nuclear competition is brewing between the two countries as China makes gains in weapons development and Washington tries to limit Beijing's military build-up in the South China Sea.
The United States is still decades ahead in nuclear weapons development but a successful test late last year of China's new submarine-launched ballistic missile, the JL-3, is cause for concern in Washington. The test signals that China is moving ahead with a new class of strategic submarines called SSBNs, vessels that could be equipped with nuclear-armed JL-3s and that would be more difficult to detect than conventional land-based nuclear weapons. 'In a sign of that growing concern, US President Donald Trump said in October that his decision to withdraw from a decades-old atomic accord with Russia was driven by a need to respond to China's nuclear build-up. US Vice-President Mike Pence has also stressed that the US Navy would "continue to fly, sail and operate wherever international law allowed" in the South China Sea - remarks that Beijing took as aimed at China.
According to Zhao Tong, a fellow in Carnegie's Nuclear Policy Programme, based at the Carnegie-Tsinghua Centre for Global Policy, the US and its allies are stepping up their anti-submarine warfare in the South China Sea and the Indian Ocean. Chinese scientists make progress on nuclear submarine communication In a report late last year, Zhao said this was increasing mistrust between the two countries and raising the possibility that Beijing might rethink the "no first" nuclear weapons policy, which has been in place since the first Chinese nuclear test in 1964. In a separate report, the Washington-based US-China Economic and Security Review Commission said Beijing was looking at expanding its nuclear delivery systems, setting off debate in China over whether its nuclear arms should be used only as a deterrent and not as a "first strike" The United States and China are both capable of delivering nuclear weapons through three systems: land-launched nuclear missiles, nuclear missile-armed submarines and strategic aircraft with nuclear bombs and missiles.
China's Fear Of US May Tempt Them To Preempt Sinologists October 01, 2013 by Sydney J. Freedberg JR. - WASHINGTON: Because China believes it is much weaker than the United States, they are more likely to launch a massive preemptive strike in a crisis. Here's the other bad news: The current US concept for high-tech warfare, known as Air-Sea Battle, might escalate the conflict even further towards a "limited" nuclear war, says one of the top American experts on the Chinese military.
There is no "Cold War mentality" towards China, there is genuine and well-founded concern over China's increasing aggressiveness towards the US and its allies, its cyberattacks on the US and ASAT attacks on its satellites, its plans for war on the US and its allies, the aggressive warmongering statements from Chinese flag officers and senior colonels, and China's huge military buildup which long ago exceeded any legitimate self-defense requirement China may have had.
China is NOT "working with the very global institutions that the US has created" - China is working to UNDERMINE these institutions, the US-led global order, and US influence around the world. At intl institutions like the UN and the WTO, it OPPOSES the US at every turn. China is an enemy of the US, not a partner, and no amount of propaganda from a Chinaman will change that. Only a change in China's behavior by China's leaders can. n/p>
U.S. Nuclear War Plan Option Sought Destruction of China and Soviet Union as "Viable" Societies Published: Aug 15, 2018 - The U.S. government has never declassified any version of the SIOP, forcing researchers to rely on ancillary documentation to shed useful light on elements of the plan. The Joint Staff review posted today is the latest such evidence. Base-line declassified knowledge about earlier versions of the SIOP includes: SIOP-62 and its successors involved massive nuclear strikes against Sino-Soviet targets, with thousands of weapons aimed at over a thousand targets, with "Alpha" category nuclear weapons and delivery systems - nuclear-tipped missiles and bombers loaded with nuclear weapons - the top priority. To satisfy policymakers who wanted the president to have a wider range of choices, by late 1962 the SIOP included two preemptive and three retaliatory options. Included in the Football briefing material for the President, the SIOP options were strikes, sometimes in combination, on nuclear weapons and delivery systems (Task Alpha), on non-nuclear military targets (Task Bravo), and on urban-industrial targets (Task Charlie). SIOP-63 established a high damage expectancy of 90 percent probability of severe damage to targets, a requirement that made the SIOP an instrument of "overkill" because multiple nuclear weapons would strike high priority targets
The Joint Staff review of the SIOP-64 guidance includes new information on nuclear war planning: The SIOP guidance permitted "withholds" to hold back strikes on specific countries. Recognizing the reality of Sino-Soviet tensions, it would be possible to launch nuclear strikes against the Soviet Union without attacking China or vice versa or to withhold strikes from some Eastern European countries, namely Albania, Bulgaria, and Romania. Priorities for Task Alpha targets: At the top of the list of the most urgent target categories were: heavy and medium bomber bases, unprotected ICBM sites (silos did not shield Soviet ICBMs until early 1964), and IRBM/MRBM [intermediate range/medium range ballistic missile] sites. For the top priority "Task Alpha" targets, the SIOP-64 guidance set an even higher damage expectancy of 95 percent, "a high degree of probability of damage." Thus, overkill continued to be baked into the SIOP. Yet, because nuclear planners based their assessments of damage on the blast effects of nuclear explosions, they did not take into account the further devastation caused by fire effects, especially in urban areas. The purpose of one of the retaliatory options was to destroy the Soviet Union as a "viable" society because it targeted Soviet military forces (conventional and nuclear) plus strikes on urban-industrial targets.
Preemption: The SIOP's preemptive options should not be confused with a first strike. President Eisenhower had ruled out one first-strike possibility, preventive war against the Soviet Union, but the option for a preemptive strike against Soviet military targets became standard in U.S. nuclear planning. Informing preemption was the prospect that strategic intelligence could produce warning of an impending Soviet attack that a U.S. strike could avert or at least blunt. Moreover, some military planners believed that by destroying Soviet nuclear forces first a preemptive strike could limit damage to the United States. Yet, by September 1963, top defense officials were concluding that damage limitation strategies could fail. At a White House briefing on the 1963 report of the highly secret Net Evaluation Subcommittee [NESC], General Leon Johnson told the president that "There is no way, no matter what we do, to avoid unacceptable damage in the U.S. if nuclear war breaks out." All the same, preemption remained in the menu of SIOP options and the logic of damage limitation "became deeply ingrained in decisions about the numbers and capabilities of the U.S. nuclear arsenal."
The urgency given to counterforce targets and the availability of preemptive options added momentum and instability to the U.S.-Soviet strategic competition. Also published today by the National Security Archive is new information on the nuclear pre-delegation instructions approved by President Johnson in March 1964, codenamed "Furtherance." The instructions covered a specific contingency: if the Soviet Union launched a surprise attack and if the U.S. president and successors could not be reached, and if detonation of nuclear weapons on U.S. territory could be confirmed. Under those circumstances, U.S. commanders could respond with an all-out attack against the "Sino-Soviet" bloc, which meant all countries allied with Moscow and Beijing.
Rethinking the Bomb Nuclear Weapons and American Grand Strategy January, 2019 by Francis J. Gavin - To better understand the purpose and consequences of nuclear weapons in American grand strategy, this essay interrogates many widely held assumptions and beliefs, with a goal of updating the intellectual architecture undergirding analysis of the role of the bomb.
The force is larger than it needs to be if deterrence by threat of nuclear retaliation is the sole objective of U.S. nuclear strategy. Even a mildly expanded target base that included selected targets in emerging nuclear powers as well as chemical and biological weapons facilities in a larger set of countries would not necessarily require the sort of force that the United States plans to maintain. What the planned force appears best suited to provide beyond the needs of traditional deterrence is a preemptive counterforce capability against Russia and China. Otherwise, the numbers and the operating procedures simply do not add up.
There has long been a tension between the goal of strategic stability and extending deterrence to America's allies. As analysts from RAND pointed out in 1989, there was a clash between the "objectives of enhancing first-strike stability, on the one hand, and extending deterrence and limiting damage, on the other," such that the more robust the Soviets believed stability was "the less they might hesitate to precipitate a deep crisis by engaging in serious aggression." As Earl Ravenal explained in 1982, extending deterrence demanded expensive and potentially destabilizing counterforce capabilities, employed in first-strike strategies. "Such a damage-limiting attack, to have its intended effect, must be preemptive." Permanently extending deterrence while inhibiting proliferation have been cornerstones of American grand strategy for so long it is easy to forget how historically unusual, difficult, and demanding this ambition is.
There was, of course, great tension between the goal of a preemptive strategy and strategic stability. Counterforce strategies were not about mutual vulnerability, Ravenal makes clear: Counterforce and first nuclear strike are mutually dependent. A first strike implies counterforce targeting, since the only initial attack that makes sense is a damage-limiting strike, the destruction of as much of the enemy's nuclear force as possible. And counterforce targeting, in return, implies a first strike, a preemptive attack, because a second strike against the enemy's missiles is useless to the extent that one's missiles would hit empty holes. As an assistant to Defense Secretary Robert McNamara told a reporter in the mid-1960s, "There could be no such thing as primary retaliation against military targets after an enemy attack. If you're going to shoot at missiles, you're talking about first strike."
To be clear, this is not to argue that American leaders seriously contemplated a first strike or even made full-out efforts to acquire meaningful first-strike forces. While American presidents refused to accept qualitative parity with the Soviet Union and pursued expensive and arguably dangerous counterforce options, they also shied away from seeking a full-scale, first-strike capability. One of the great unanswered questions of the nuclear age involves what U.S. leaders thought they were getting with this qualified superiority. One promising explanation is Glenn Kent and David Thaler's idea of "optimum instability" - developing enough counterforce to make the other side think you might go first in a crisis but without making your adversary think you are eager to do so. "Indeed, one might argue that an optimal amount of first-strike instability is possible: that is, enough to deter the Soviets from generating a major crisis (say, by invading Western Europe), but not enough to allow a major crisis to spiral out of control."
Washington, however, aggressively pursued a wide range of policies to achieve inhibition, including threats of force or abandonment, forward deployed forces, enacting sanctions, selling arms, and encouraging treaties and norms.47 To achieve its goals of inhibition, the United States often cooperated with its most bitter ideological and geopolitical adversary, the Soviet Union, at the expense of U.S. partners and allies.
It is easy to lose sight of how strange, even radical, these grand-strategic choices were when they were developed in the 1950s and the extent to which they remain so today. There is little in the nuclear-revolution theory that can explain the cost, number, and technological sophistication of America's nuclear weapons systems, nor the aggressive postures in which they were employed. Imagine explaining in the early 20th century that the United States was going to risk a global war that would kill tens of millions of people to defend a conventionally indefensible portion of a city - West Berlin - 100 miles within enemy territory that had no geostrategic value whatsoever. Imagine that everyone would think this was normal (and call it "extended deterrence").
China, Nuclear Weapons Posted in Arms Control, ballistic missiles Jan.21, 2019, by Hans M. Kristensen - The 666 Brigade is in range of U.S. sea- and air-launched cruise missiles as well as ballistic missiles. But the DF-26 is part of China's growing inventory of INF-range missiles (most of which, by far, are non-nuclear), a development that is causing some in the U.S. defense community to recommend the United States should withdraw from the INF treaty and deploy quick-launch intermediate-range ballistic missiles in the Western Pacific. Others (including this author) disagree, saying current and planned U.S. capabilities are sufficient to meet national security objectives and that engaging China in an INF-race would make things worse. The DF-26, which was first officially displayed in 2015, fielded in 2016, and declared in service by April 2018, is an intermediate-range ballistic missile launched from a six-axle road-mobile launchers that can deliver either a conventional or nuclear warhead to a maximum distance of 4,000 kilometers (2,485 miles). From the 666 Brigade area near Xinyang, a DF-26 IRBM could reach Guam and New Delhi (see map). China has had the capability to strike Guam with the nuclear DF-4 ICBM since 1980, but the DF-4 is a moveable, liquid-fuel missiles that takes a long time to set up, while the DF-26 is a road-mobile, solid-fuel, dual-capable missile that can launch quicker and with greater accuracy. Moreover, DF-26 adds conventional strike to the IRBM range for the first time.
The Russo-Chinese alliance emerges thehill October 21,2019 by Stephen Blank - While the media remain preoccupied with the Syria crisis and the impeachment inquiry, equally if not more consequential events are happening elsewhere that deserve America's urgent attention. On October 3 Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the next step in the Russo-Chinese alliance, revealing that Russia is now helping China build an early warning system for its missile defenses. In doing so, Putin confounded the complacent opinion of the many experts who assert that such an alliance was unlikely if not impossible. He also expanded the scope of Sino-Russian challenges to U.S interests, values and allies. The alliance, as Putin observed, is multi-faceted. China and Russia conduct joint exercises in Asia and Europe, hold regular and extensive staff talks and educate each other's officers. Some 3,600 Chinese officers have undergone training at Russian military academies. Russia and China also sell each other and third parties weapons clearly intended to threaten U.S. forces and allies. Likewise, they are building what appears to be a coordinated missile defense system in Northeast Asia that will both protect them from the U.S. and allow them to threaten Japan and defend North Korea against what they now call a preemptive strike close to their borders. China and Russia also are each threatening prized U.S. interests in the Freedom of the Seas - in the South China Sea, the Arctic, the Black Sea, Sea of Azov and Kerch Strait. Simultaneously, they take part in an extensive range of inter-governmental meetings, jointly participate in global international organizations like the BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, provide mutual economic benefits to each other (e.g. Russian providing energy to China in return for Chinese aid and investment) and sell arms to each other.
Missile Defense for Great Power Conflict Outmaneuvering the China Threat Strategic Studies Quarterly winter 2019 by Henry Obering III and Rebeccah L. Heinrichs - Missile Defense for Great Power Conflict: Outmaneuvering the China Threat - Abstract: China is modernizing its military to establish regional hegemony in the near term and global preeminence in the far term. The People's Liberation Army's crown jewel is its massive arsenal of missiles capable of ranging the US homeland and critical US bases that underpin US military power projection. To meet this challenge, it is imperative that the United States adapt its missile defense policy and strategy and leverage new technology to increase the capability of US missile defenses, and it must do so with a sense of urgency and purpose.
China's concerted military ascendance over the past two decades - taken with its provocative behavior in its near-seas region, as well as its moves to become an authoritarian single-party system at home - demonstrates that Xi Jinping is not choosing a future of peaceful coexistence with the United States and our allies. China does not respect the sovereignty of other nations, nor does it share the US and US ally commitment to open access to international waters. Rather, China seeks to gain regional hegemony in the Indo-Pacific in the near term and eventually to replace the United States as the global preeminent power. To implement its national ambitions, China has invested in an array of military capabilities. But the heart of China's military ascendance is its missile force. In 2015, Xi Jinping unveiled the most substantial People's Liberation Army (PLA) reforms in at least three decades. As part of those reforms to make the PLA more lethal, it elevated China's missile force to a full service by establishing the PLA Rocket Force (PLARF). The PLA has deployed thousands of ground-based ballistic and cruise missiles that can reach US bases and forces throughout the region. Most of these missiles are deployed on the Chinese mainland, but the PLA has also deployed missiles on China's artificial islands in the South China Sea. Of particular concern, approximately 95 percent of the missiles in the PLARF are in the 500 to 5,500 km range, meaning that critical US bases throughout Japan are within range of thousands of advanced ballistic and cruise missiles and are vulnerable to attack. Based on these new realities, it is imperative that the United States adapt its missile defense policy and architecture and more heavily incorporate missile defense as we strive to establish effective deterrence and efense should deterrence fail. Through its missile force, the PRC can coerce and blackmail the United States even in a time of peace. Chinese missiles threaten to push the United States out of the Indo-Pacific region, limit US movement, and preclude certain decisions - including coming to the aid of allies - by raising the cost of defensive military intervention. The Trump administration has built onto the work of the Obama and Bush administrations and has sought to elevate missile defense in the context of strategic competition with China and Russia.
As noted in the MDR, China is aggressively pursuing a wide range of mobile air and missile defense capabilities, including the purchase of S-400 systems from Russia, each with four interceptor missiles, and is developing additional theater ballistic missile defense systems. China also has announced that it is testing a new mid-course missile defense system. Further, China is developing a suite of antisatellite weapons, continues to launch "experimental" satellites that conduct sophisticated on-orbit activities to advance counterspace capabilities, and has conducted multiple ASAT tests using groundlaunched missiles. In response to the possibility of great power conflict in the twentyfirst century, the United States must take a fresh look at its defensive systems. Just as the Chinese have elevated their missile force to the status of their other services, so should the United States elevate the investment and importance of missile defense to reflect the new era of great power competition.
By leveraging new technologies and hit-to-kill technology and investing in directed energy, missile defense will become less costly in the offense-defense comparison. The United States can increase the credibility of its deterrence and defense with a more reliable and capable missile defense architecture, including current sea- and land-based defensive systems complemented by a space-based sensor, space-enabled intercept, and space-based intercept layer. A robust missile defense system that accounts for the Chinese missile threat would help the United States defend its ability to access the Indo-Pacific, cooperate with its allies in enforcing national boundaries, and generally preserve the peace. Failing to do so could, by default, mean forfeiting regional hegemony to China in the near term and the status of global preeminent power in the far term.
China's Nuclear Arms Are a Riddle Wrapped in a Mystery March,13, 2020 by Michael Mazza, Henry Solkoski - Beijing's plans to build new missiles, expand anti-satellite capabilities and increase nuclear material production far above civilian needs have the world guessing. Two weeks ago, U.S. President Donald Trump agreed to a proposal that China join the four other permanent members of the United Nations Security Council at a summit to initiate a new round of arms control talks. The goal, according to administration officials, is a three-way agreement among China, Russia, and the United States to limit nuclear weapons. As National Security Adviser Robert O'Brien explained in early February, "It shouldn't just be the U.S. and Russia. We think that China is going to need to become involved in any serious arms control negotiation." China, whose nuclear warheads number only in the low hundreds, may not seem a natural fit for negotiations with the United States (6,185 total warheads, of which 1,750 are deployed) and Russia (6,490 total, 1,600 deployed). Indeed, China has previously rejected participating in a trilateral nuclear arms deal on the grounds that its forces are too small. But Beijing's ambitious plans for new enrichment and recycling capacities capable of producing material for nuclear weapons would make it possible for China to achieve parity with the United States and Russia. Moreover, given the current and perhaps enduring Sino-Russian strategic alignment, the United States can no longer assume that a military conflict with China will not also involve Russia; while adding Russian and Chinese nuclear weapons numbers may not be appropriate, neither is considering them completely in isolation.
The Reason Why China Refuses to Use Nuclear Weapons First in a War Is No First Use a good idea? January 13, 2020 by David Axe - The NFU policy reaffirmation, contained in Beijing's July 2019 strategic white paper, surprised some observers who expected a more expansive and aggressive nuclear posture from the rising power. Notably, the United States does not have a no-first-use policy. "Retaining a degree of ambiguity and refraining from a no first use policy creates uncertainty in the mind of potential adversaries and reinforces deterrence of aggression by ensuring adversaries cannot predict what specific actions will lead to a U.S. nuclear response," the Pentagon stated. Chinese state media posted the government's Full Text: China's National Defense in the New Era white paper in its entirety. "Nuclear capability is the strategic cornerstone to safeguarding national sovereignty and security," the paper asserts. Given the impassioned attack on constructive U.S.-China relations currently sweeping U.S. elites off their feet, along with the continued proliferation of misinformation about Chinese nuclear capabilities and intentions, many U.S. commentators are likely to brush aside the new white paper's reiteration of China's longstanding nuclear no-first-use policy. Comments:
Me - It's a completely meaningless statement, at least the US is honest enough to not pretend otherwise. Rockool - Yeah, and Chine swore it was NOT going to militarize the man made islands in the South China Sea!! sparklite - When the USSR opted to place ABMs around Moscow rather than protect their ICBM launch sites, they gave the lie to their NFU pledge. There is no need to protect your ICBMs when they are launched in a first strike. A country's gonna do what they wanna do regardless of their promises. The US opted to protect our ICBM fields.
China Poses an Existential Threat to the Rights of People Worldwide Breitbart Jan 16, 2020 by Frances Martel - Hong Kong's Chinese-controlled authorities blocked the entry of the executive director of the human rights organization Human Rights Watch, Kenneth Roth, on Sunday. China's government sees human rights as an existential threat. Its reaction could pose an existential threat to the rights of people worldwide, if not challenged, Beijing's actions portend a dystopian future in which no one is beyond the reach of Chinese censors, and an international human rights system so weakened that it no longer serves as a check on government repression.
The Coronavirus Has Put the U.S.-China Relationship on Life Support Foreign Policy's weekly China Brief March 18, 2020 byJames Palmer - China expels American journalists, Beijing and Washington swap harsh words on the coronavirus, and grim economic data emerges. China dropped a bombshell on the Western press yesterday as it announced the effective expulsion of all U.S. staff of the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, and the Washington Post. It also demanded that both Time and the Voice of America, along with those three organizations, register all their employees in China as foreign agents. Thirteen journalists have been expelled as a result; more are likely to follow as China squeezes the bureaus, quite likely including non-Americans. The move came in part in retaliation for Washington's recent limits on Chinese state media operatives in the United States. The effective expulsion of three of the most important American outlets would be worrying enough. But there also appears to be a wave of anti-foreigner feeling building throughout the system. Americans and other Westerners in China are reporting police questioning of their bosses, restrictions on visits by other foreigners, and increased police checks. Anti-Asian racism, meanwhile, is on the rise in the United States at the street level and China's information officials are spreading the lie that the coronavirus didn't originate in China, while state-linked media doubles down on conspiracy theories promoted by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs about an imaginary U.S. military role. In response, American conservatives, including the Trump administration, continue to refer to the coronavirus as "the Chinese virus," while U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo made an angry call to State Counsellor Yang Jiechi and summoned the Chinese ambassador for a dressing-down. Cold War 2.0? There's been a long-standing debate in the China watcher community over whether the brewing U.S.-China competition can be called a cold war. But neither the United States nor the Soviet Union ever accused the other side of causing a pandemic, either deliberately or through neglect. Relations are at their worst point in modern memory and likely only to get worse. Unless de-escalation comes soon, this could be very ugly.
China's Julang-3 can hit 160 targets! Why is the 096 nuclear submarine so strong? bestchinanews Feb 9, 2019 - The United States has decided to build nearly 30 Virginia-class Block V nuclear submarines for intercepting Chinese nuclear submarines in the Pacific Ocean. What should China do in the face of this new situation? Judging from the models currently in service, the main force of China's strategic attack on the United States is Type 094A. Although the Type 094 nuclear submarine can only operate in China's offshore waters, the Julang-2 missile can only attack parts of the United States, which is relatively safe. But if we want to attack the Middle and East region of the United States, we must venture through the first and second island chains and go out to the North Pacific Ocean. This will inevitably make 094A a target of the superior anti-submarine forces of the United States and Japan for a long time, and cause great obstacles to China's nuclear deterrence.
People's Liberation Army Navy Submarine Force Wikipedia - The People's Liberation Army Navy Submarine Force (PLANSF) is the submarine service of the People's Liberation Army Navy. It consists of all types of submarines in operational service organized into three fleets: the North Sea Fleet, the East Sea Fleet, and the South Sea Fleet. Submarines have long been one of the three focuses of the People's Liberation Army Navy (the other two are aircraft and major surface combatants), and when the decision was made in late 2006 to concentrate on building other principal surface combatants to strengthen the air defense and to further delay the construction of aircraft carriers due to insufficient air cover, submarines will continue to play the lead dominant role in the assault force for the PLAN. Currently, PLANSF operates a fleet of 68 submarines which include nuclear as well as conventional submarines.
Deceiving the Sky Inside Communist China's Drive for Global Supremecy September 3, 2019 by Bill Gertz - The United States' approach to China since the Communist regime in Beijing began the period of reform and opening in the 1980s was based on a promise that trade and engagement with China would result in a peaceful, democratic state. Forty years later, the hope of producing a benign People's Republic of China utterly failed. The Communist Party of China deceived the West into believing that its system and the Party-ruled People's Liberation Army were peaceful and posed no threat. In fact, these misguided policies produced the emergence of a twenty-first-century evil empire even more dangerous than a Cold War version in the Soviet Union. Successive American presidential administrations were fooled by ill-advised pro-China policymakers, intelligence analysts, and business leaders who facilitated the rise not of a peaceful China but a threatening and expansionist, nuclear-armed communist dictatorship focused on a single overriding strategic objective: weakening and destroying the United States of America.
Defeating the United States is the first step for China's current rulers in achieving global supremacy under a new world order based on an ideology of Communism with Chinese characteristics. The process included technology theft of American companies that took place on a massive scale through cyber theft and unfair trade practices. The losses directly supported the largest and most significant buildup of the Chinese military that now directly threatens American and allied interests around the world. The military threat is only half the danger as China aggressively pursues regional and international control using a variety of non-military forces, including economic, cyber, and space warfare and large-scale influence operations. Deceiving the Sky: Inside Communist China's Drive for Global Supremacy details the failure to understand the nature and activities of the dangers posed by China and what the United States can do in taking needed steps to counter the threats.
Hegemon China's Plan th Dominate Asia and the World March 15, 2002 by Steven Mosher - For centuries, China had not only had the largest population, but also the most advanced economy and the strongest army on earth. It saw itself as the Hegemon, the ever-expanding central power around which the world revolved. Steven Mosher believes that China still sees itself in these terms. In Hegemon, Mosher shows how the quest for domination has been something like an art form in Chinese statecraft, an enduring feature on the country's mysterious face that is often hidden from the west. Hegemon is a masterly inquiry into the ideas at the heart of Chinese culture and history. It is also as timely as today's headlines about Chinese efforts to influence U.S. elections and steal U.S. nuclear secrets and to establish China as a global superpower. A major work of scholarship and analysis, Hegemon reinforces Steven Mosher's reputation as one of our most thoughtful and provocative China Watchers.
How CCP Propaganda Exhalts a Fictional Narrative of China History - and continues the legacy of centralized dictatorial rule by Emperors that enslaved, tortured and killed millions of its subjects
China Dream May 7, 2019 by Ma Jian, Translator Flora Drew - "May be the purest distillation yet of Mr. Ma's talent for probing the country's darkest corners and exposing what he regards as the Communist Party's moral failings." - Mike Ives, The New York Times - Blending fact and fiction, China Dream is an unflinching satire of totalitarianism. Ma Daode, a corrupt and lecherous party official, is feeling pleased with himself. He has an impressive office, three properties, and multiple mistresses who text him day and night. After decades of loyal service, he has been appointed director of the China Dream Bureau, charged with replacing people's private dreams with President Xi Jinping's great China Dream of national rejuvenation. But just as he is about to present his plan for a mass golden wedding anniversary celebration, his sanity begins to unravel. Suddenly plagued by flashbacks of the Cultural Revolution, Ma Daode's nightmare visions from the past threaten to destroy his dream of a glorious future. This darkly comic fable exposes the damage inflicted on a nation's soul when authoritarian regimes, driven by an insatiable hunger for power, seek to erase memory, rewrite history, and falsify the truth. It is a dystopian vision of repression, violence, and state-imposed amnesia that is set not in the future, but in China today.
The US and China are in a quantum arms race that will transform warfare Radar that can spot stealth aircraft and other quantum innovations could give their militaries a strategic edge MIT Technology Review - Computing/Quantum computing January 3, 2019 by Martin Gilesarchive - In the 1970s, at the height of the Cold War, American military planners began to worry about the threat to US warplanes posed by new, radar-guided missile defenses in the USSR and other nations. In response, engineers at places like US defense giant Lockheed Martin's famous "Skunk Works" stepped up work on stealth technology that could shield aircraft from the prying eyes of enemy radar. The innovations that resulted include unusual shapes that deflect radar waves - like the US B-2 bomber's "flying wing" design (above) - as well as carbon-based materials and novel paints. Stealth technology isn't yet a Harry Potter-like invisibility cloak: even today's most advanced warplanes still reflect some radar waves. But these signals are so small and faint they get lost in background noise, allowing the aircraft to pass unnoticed. China and Russia have since gotten stealth aircraft of their own, but America's are still better. They have given the US the advantage in launching surprise attacks in campaigns like the war in Iraq that began in 2003.
This advantage is now under threat. In November 2018, China Electronics Technology Group Corporation (CETC), China's biggest defense electronics company, unveiled a prototype radar that it claims can detect stealth aircraft in flight. The radar uses some of the exotic phenomena of quantum physics to help reveal planes' locations. It's just one of several quantum-inspired technologies that could change the face of warfare. As well as unstealthing aircraft, they could bolster the security of battlefield communications and affect the ability of submarines to navigate the oceans undetected. The pursuit of these technologies is triggering a new arms race between the US and China, which sees the emerging quantum era as a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to gain the edge over its rival in military tech. CETC's work is part of a long-term effort by China to turn itself into a world leader in quantum technology. The country is providing generous funding for new quantum research centers at universities and building a national research center for quantum science that's slated to open in 2020. Its already leaped ahead of the US in registering patents in quantum communications and cryptography (see chart).
As well as being used for navigation, magnetometers can also detect and track the movement of large metallic objects, like submarines, by fluctuations they cause in local magnetic fields. Because they are very sensitive, the magnetometers are easily disrupted by background noise, so for now they are used for detection only at very short distances. But last year, the Chinese Academy of Sciences let slip that some Chinese researchers had found a way to compensate for this using quantum technology. That might mean the devices could be used in the future to spot submarines at much longer ranges. It's also too early to tell whether it will be China or the US that comes out on top in the quantum arms race - or whether it will lead to a Cold War-style stalemate. But the money China is pouring into quantum research is a sign of how determined it is to take the lead.
How successful would China's secondary strikes be if the US did a pre-emptive-nuclear-strike on China? Quora March 23, 2017 - Answer by Timothy Soh, Writer and editor on DefensePoliticsAsia.com - Any first strike by the US will not eradicate much of China's nuclear arsenal because like the Americans, they take great pains to protect it buried in underground mountain bunkers. Based on the 2010 estimates, China has about 44 ICBMs that can reach the American continent, the DF-5 and the DF-31A. The DF-5 will be superseded by the DF-41 that is currently in development. The 44 missiles are on the assumption that the liquid fuelled DF-5 missiles do not face fueling leaks from corrosion, as it can happen to older liquid fuelled ICBMs. This is part of the reason why newer ICBMs use solid fuels. With 44 missiles, you only have enough to try and stop the facilitators of American Force Projection. Bases with massive logistical hubs.
The two main targets would be Diego Garcia and Guam, along with other important ports and airports along the coast of continental US. Although the US might operate out of Korea and Japan, China may well be reluctant to fire at Japan because the Japanese may possibly have their own nukes, albeit delivered by F-15Js or possible future UGM-109 TLAM. The Chinese may retain its submarine fleet for a counter-strike or it might expend their missiles immediately or risk losing them to USN submarines although that itself is unlikely as the Chinese SSBNs are heavily protected by an armada of Chinese SSKs and surface fleets.
Why Chinese Movies Turn the American Dream Into a Nightmare The American Dream appears quite often in Chinese movies - usually not in the best light January 27, 2017 by Anthony Kao - China might be an economic heavyweight, but America is still the world's soft power hegemon. Nowhere is this more evident than in Chinese movies. While you'd be hard-pressed to find an American blockbuster featuring Xi Jinping's "Chinese Dream", you can find plenty of Chinese movies that touch upon the "American Dream". These depictions must simultaneously play to America's continued appeal amongst target audiences whilst touting China's superiority - a delicate tightrope walk that hints at contemporary China's conflicted views of the US. Alas, all Chinese movies must be approved by the government (CPC), and maybe that's why these tragi-romances are so tragic. Think of the implications if all Chinese blockbusters showed their characters moving to the US and then living happily ever after. Who'd want to stay in China?
Rachel Maddow on her show hosted New York Times reporter Donald McNeil, who opined that China had "enormous success in beating down its epidemic." Maddow then thanked McNeil for detailing the "distance between" China's response and "what we're preparing for." Her show, highlighting Trump's failures compared with China's supposed victories, later shared a clip of the segment on Twitter with the headline "how coronavirus testing works in a country that takes the problem seriously."
Don't be fooled by China's morality play The Communist Party's 10,000-character paper co-opts traditional beliefs as its war against religion escalates January 7, 2020 by Michael Sainsbury, Hong Kong China - Barely reported outside China, in late October the country's ruling Communist Party published a 10,000-character document on social mores or, more simply put, morality. It was the latest shot to be fired in leader Xi Jinping's war against religion that has seen repression, especially against Christianity and Islam, amped up to levels not seen since the dark days of Mao Zedong which culminated in the bloody, murderous and disastrous Cultural Revolution from 1966 until the dictator's 1976 death. But the new paper, as we will discover, is also a long overdue de-facto recognition of the spiritual vacuum that has been wrought by the officially atheist Chinese Communist Party (CCP), whose legitimacy now rests precariously, not on its original aims of creating an equal society but on the continuance of success of the nation's economic growth and prosperity, which is also spectacularly, unequally shared and is now slowing while hundreds of millions of people remain in poverty. Those who have escaped poverty are now struggling as much as ever due to soaring living costs and personal debt, Rampant crony capitalism, along with the removal of the core of all spiritual movements and their ethical compass by the party in its various forms, has created a society where there is a parlous trust deficit. The search for spirituality by many Chinese is a way of trying to address this. Despite its official atheism, the CCP has always been involved in spiritual matters. This has involved the close control of the country's five "official" religions: Catholicism, Protestantism, Chinese Buddhism, Daoism and Islam.
In its march to power, the CCP paid lip service to traditional religions but soon set about destroying countless thousands of Buddhist and Daoist temples as well as Christian churches when it came to power with another major wave of anti-religious activity during the Cultural Revolution. In his New York Times piece, Johnson notes by way of example: "Scholars estimate that by the middle of the 20th century, half of the temples that existed in China at the end of the 19th century had been destroyed. An 1851 survey of the old city of Beijing listed 866 temples; today, I count just 18. At the end of the 19th century, most villages had at least one temple and many had half a dozen; vast sections of the Chinese countryside now have no temples at all." The hypocrisy of an elitist, officially atheistic and highly corrupt organization attempting to carve out a role in morality is well worth noting, but under Xi Jinping that is precisely what the CCP is attempting more specifically than ever.
No, There Isn't Moral Equivalence Between Communist China And The U.S. May 10, 2019 by Ben Weingarten - 'Most of China's 1.4 billion people have no religious affiliation. Is there any reason to believe that China is a less moral place than the United States?' asks Max Boot. Just as trade negotiations between China and the United States may be reaching their crescendo, an outspoken ex-conservative has made an assertion about the People's Republic of China (PRC) likely to warm the hearts of the leaders of the ruling Chinese Communist Party (CCP). Writing in the Washington Post on his desire for an "unapologetic atheist" to someday ascend to the White House, Max Boot says: There are too many examples of evil committed in the name of God to assume that people act morally because they are afraid of divine punishment. More likely, people are social animals who develop moral codes so they can live at peace with their neighbors. That's why almost all societies, whether religious or not, have similar taboos against murder, robbery, rape and other sins.
Most of China's 1.4 billion people have no religious affiliation, and fewer than 7 percent are monotheists. Is there any reason to believe that China is a less moral place than the United States, where 70.6 percent profess to be Christians? [Emphasis mine] Boot's apparent attempt to draw moral equivalence between China and the United States would be news to the 1.4 billion Chinese citizens living in the world's leading surveillance state - to the extent they are able to read his article behind the Great Firewall, and not one of the 1 to 2 million Uighurs currently imprisoned in "re-education camps" or countless others held captive for challenging the Party line.
It would be news to members of the dissenting Chinese diaspora being tracked down and targeted by the Communist regime at every corner of the Earth. And it would be news to those peoples whose sovereignty is threatened by the CCP and the People's Liberation Army that serves it -"it" being the Party, not the country. Boot's comparison would stun anyone who acknowledges that under Mao Zedong and the CCP's reign - which continues to this day - 65 million people were murdered; witnessed the massacre at Tiananmen Square; or is aware of the alleged forced organ harvesting of hundreds of thousands of Chinese people being persecuted for their beliefs, or forced sterilizations, abortions, or outright infanticides contributing to the up to 400 million "averted" births under the nation's one-child policy. The practical reality is that the CCP cannot abide a belief system that competes with it. So much for morality.
China Syndrome (Published March 14th 2006) is an ominously prophetic fortelling of events presently unfolding (March, 2020) from the Chinese coronavirus pandemic but which is proving to have exponentially greater potential to permanently damage the American economy with initial (March, 2020) prophylactic and economic relief efforts in emergency funding in excess of 5 trillion USD.
China Syndrome The True Story of the 21st Century's First Great Epidemic by Karl Taro Greenfeld - Published March 14th 2006 - When the SARS virus broke out in China in January 2003, Karl Taro Greenfeld was the editor of Time Asia in Hong Kong, just a few miles from the epicenter of the outbreak. After vague, initial reports of terrified Chinese boiling vinegar to "purify" the air, Greenfeld and his staff soon found themselves immersed in the story of a lifetime. Deftly tracking a mysterious viral killer from the bedside of one of the first victims to China's overwhelmed hospital wards - from cutting-edge labs where researchers struggle to identify the virus to the war rooms at the World Health Organization headquarters in Geneva - China Syndrome takes readers on a gripping ride that blows through the Chinese government's effort to cover up the disease . . . and sounds a clarion call warning of a catastrophe to come: a great viral storm potentially more deadly than any respiratory disease since the influenza of 1918.
Joshua Review Feb, 2020 - When I read this book today as the Wuhan coronavirus outbreak is in its full swing, it feels that exactly the same event that had recoiled 17 years ago is now unfolding itself all over again. The history is repeating itself. An infectious disease is evolving into an epidemic in a global scale, by a novel virus of similar structure and function (but different), which jumped to human from wild species found in wet markets. The tragic drama again happens in China, even with same players: sluggish provincial Chinese officials, late but draconian reactions from the central government, outspoken physicians and virologists (Guan Yi and Zhong Nanshan are still around and active), dying patients and the panic public. It's just too surreal.
Our China Problem USA VS. PRC May, 2020 by Mitchell B. Reiss - Is China a rising threat to be confronted boldly, or a manageable problem to be handled patiently? Four new studies offer ammunition for both sides of the debate: Strategic Asia 2019 China's Expanding Strategic Ambitions Ashley J. Tellis, et al, National Bureau of Asian Research, 2019; Implementing U.S. Grand Strategy Toward China Twenty-Two U.S. Policy Prescriptions Robert Blackwill Council on Foreign Relations Special Report No. 85, January 2020; The State Strikes Back The End of Economic Reform in China? Nicholas R. Lardy Peterson Institute for International Economics, 2019; China's New Red Guards The Return of Radicalism and the Rebirth of Mao Zedong Jude D. Blanchette Oxford University Press -
The coronavirus pandemic has exposed, like no crisis before it, just how difficult it has now become for the United States and China to find common cause. One remarkable feature of the past few months has been the near-total lack of communication and cooperation between the world's two leading powers, who instead have publicly engaged in reciprocal bouts of name-calling, finger-pointing, and blame-shifting. The difference between this behavior, and their more responsible coordinated actions after both the September 11 attacks and the 2008 financial crisis, is both striking and lamentable.
In the latest edition of the annual Strategic Asia series from the National Bureau of Asian Research, Ashley Tellis warns about aspects of China's rise that are transforming the international system. In a typically clear and concise overview, Tellis outlines worrying Chinese behavior that includes threatening U.S. friends and allies across Asia, engaging in unlawful land reclamation and militarization in the South China Sea, tilting the commercial marketplace, weakening the global trading system, encouraging protectionism and trade wars by subsidizing state-owned enterprises (SOEs), favoring certain firms under its Made in China 2025 program, and generally trying to undermine U.S. primacy in the western Pacific. China is adopting an array of policies that may be characterized as keeping the two Koreas in, the Japanese down, and the United States out.
Climate Change Is Making It Harder to Predict Outbreaks Climate change is accelerating the spread of disease - and making it much harder to predict outbreaks Scientific American May 1, 2018 by Lois Parshley - Brief: Researchers still cannot predict how diseases turn into epidemics. But a new approach that incorporates climate models may provide some key answers. A rare, multidisciplinary project in South Africa is looking at Rift Valley fever to understand the volatile dynamics among weather, land use, humans and animals. Climate change is complicating and hastening how diseases spread, with unforeseen consequences.
Rift is transmitted through a broader range of hosts and vectors than West Nile virus, which arrived in New York City in 1999 and spread across the U.S. in less than six years. The U.S. Department of Agriculture has taken notice, naming Rift the third most dangerous animal pathogen, behind only bird flu and foot-and-mouth disease. But health officials are not just worried about its impact on animals and agriculture. Zoonotic diseases - infectious illnesses such as Rift and Zika that begin in animal populations and jump to humans - are the biggest risk for epidemics and pandemics. They have been responsible for some of history's worst, including bubonic plague and Ebola.
Smithsonian Magazine: November 2017 Featuring Articles About Past and Future Virus Pandemics - Is China Ground Zero for a Future Pandemic? NOVEMBER 2017 - Hundreds there have already died of a new bird flu, putting world health authorities on high alert - How to Stop a Lethal Virus NOVEMBER 2017 - With tens of millions of lives at stake, medical researchers are racing to create a revolutionary flu vaccine before the next devastating epidemic - How the Horrific 1918 Flu Spread Across America NOVEMBER 2017 - The toll of history's worst epidemic surpasses all the military deaths in World War I and World War II combined. And it may have begun in the United States - - Why Did So Few Novels Tackle the 1918 Pandemic? NOVEMBER 2017 - Surprisingly few U.S. writers touched by the 1918 pandemic wrote about it. But flu lit appears more popular today than ever.
The Next Pandemic Organized in Collaboration with Johns Hopkins/Bloomberg School of Health and Smithsonian Museum of Natural History Sponsered by the Bill and Milinda Gates Foundation - Appendix of Articles:
Can Virus Hunters Stop the Next Pandemic Before It Happens? JANUARY 25, 2018
When the Next Pandemic Hits, Will We Be Prepared? NOVEMBER 15, 2017
Ten Myths About the 1918 Flu Pandemic JANUARY 12, 2018 | UPDATED: MARCH 17, 2020
When a Medical "Cure" Makes Things Much, Much Worse JANUARY 2, 2018
Resources on Existential Risk Catastrophic Risk: Technologies and Policies, Berkman Center for Internet and Society, Harvard University, Bruce Schneier, Instructor,Fall 2015 - Popular Journalism & Public Speeches on Existential Risk and Catastrophic Risk Analysis: (Categories) Risk Posed by Nuclear Weapons; Environmental Catastrophes; SETI; Synthetic Biology; AI; Nanotechnology; Computerization of Public Infrastructure and Financial Markets; Construction, Perception & Response and The Concepts of "Catastrophic Terrorism"; "Existential Cyber Attack"; "Moral Enhancement".
Introduction: General Scholarly Discussion of Existential Risk by Nick Bostrom, March 2002 (See also: Nick Bostrom video 2019 "Superintelligence and the Future of AI"
Abstract Because of accelerating technological progress, humankind may be rapidly approaching a critical phase in its career. In addition to well‐known threats such as nuclear holocaust, the prospects of radically transforming technologies like nanotech systems and machine intelligence present us with unprecedented opportunities and risks. Our future, and whether we will have a future at all, may well be determined by how we deal with these challenges. In the case of radically transforming technologies, a better understanding of the transition dynamics from a human to a "posthuman" society is needed. Of particular importance is to know where the pitfalls are: the ways in which things could go terminally wrong. While we have had long exposure to various personal, local, and endurable global hazards, this paper analyzes a recently emerging category: that of existential risks. These are threats that could cause our extinction or destroy the potential of Earth‐originating intelligent life. Some of these threats are relatively well known while others, including some of the gravest, have gone almost unrecognized. Existential risks have a cluster of features that make ordinary risk management ineffective.
Excerpts: A typology of risk - We can distinguish six qualitatively distinct types of risks based on their scope and intensity.
Other things equal, a risk is more serious if it has a substantial probability and if our actions can make that probability significantly greater or smaller. "Personal", "local", or "global" refer to the size of the population that is directly affected; a global risk is one that affects the whole of humankind (and our successors). "Endurable" vs. "terminal" indicates how intensely the target population would be affected. An endurable risk may cause great destruction, but one can either recover from the damage or find ways of coping with the fallout. In contrast, a terminal risk is one where the targets are either annihilated or irreversibly crippled in ways that radically reduce their potential to live the sort of life they aspire to. In the case of personal risks, for instance, a terminal outcome could for example be death, permanent severe brain injury, or a lifetime prison sentence. An example of a local terminal risk would be genocide leading to the annihilation of a people (this happened to several Indian nations). Permanent enslavement is another example.
In this paper we shall discuss risks of the sixth category - this is the category of global, terminal risks. I shall call these existential risks. Existential risks are distinct from global endurable risks. Examples of the latter kind include: threats to the biodiversity of Earth's ecosphere, moderate global warming, global economic recessions (even major ones), and possibly stifling cultural or religious eras such as the "dark ages", even if they encompass the whole global community, provided they are transitory . To say that a particular global risk is endurable is evidently not to say that it is acceptable or not very serious. A world war fought with conventional weapons or a Nazi‐style Reich lasting for a decade would be extremely horrible events even though they would fall under the rubric of endurable global risks since humanity could eventually recover. (On the other hand, they could be a local terminal risk for many individuals and for persecuted ethnic groups.) I shall use the following definition of existential risks: Existential risk - One where an adverse outcome would either annihilate Earth‐originating intelligent life or permanently and drastically curtail its potential. An existential risk is one where humankind as a whole is imperiled. Existential disasters have major adverse consequences for the course of human civilization for all time to come